JPMorgan released a research report and gave Alibaba-SW (09988) a "shareholding" rating, believing that the current stock price does not reflect the improvement of fundamentals, especially in the domestic e-commerce sector, with a target price of HKD 95.
The bank expects that Alibaba's stock price will maintain a range of fluctuations in the next 3 to 6 months, as its financial situation is still in the early stages of the investment cycle. The bank believes that there are multiple catalysts for the stock price to rise if the company can complete the major listing in Hong Kong, and it may be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect in September at the earliest.
In addition, it is also expected that Alibaba's GMV in the quarter ending June will achieve a high single-digit to 10% growth, and its CMR growth rate is still lower than GMV due to portfolio changes. It is estimated that with the full launch of the new advertising system "station-wide promotion" in the second half of the year 2025, the growth rate of CMR will accelerate.