The market is optimistic that any signs of economic weakness later this year will lead to two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The June CPI data, which will be released on Thursday, is expected to continue to boost rate cut expectations. On Monday, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both set new highs. Moreover, the latest survey by the New York Fed shows that U.S. inflation expectations have fallen for two consecutive months, with the June one-year inflation expectations falling to 3.02% from 3.17% previously.

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index (DXY) remained stable, fluctuating around 105. Data shows that Japan's average cash income grew by 1.9% in May, and overtime pay increased, driving the yen up above 161. Analysts said that with strong wage agreements coming into effect, real wages are expected to rebound in the third or fourth quarter, boosting expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates later this year.

Commodities fell overall. The market assessed that the impact of Hurricane Beryl was limited, and hope for a ceasefire in the Middle East increased, causing international oil prices to fall by about 1%. Gold fell by more than 1.6%, giving back all the gains since last Friday's non-farm payrolls, and silver prices fell by more than 2%. Analysts said that last week's non-farm data drove up precious metals, but investors tended to take profits as strong US stocks partly weakened the appeal of precious metals. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China suspended gold purchases for a second consecutive month.

Internationally, because no single political party won a majority in France, the focus has now shifted to who will take over France. While this may alleviate concerns about extremist policies, it has also raised concerns about increased political instability, as difficult negotiations lie ahead. The French stock market fell more than 0.6%. Analysts say that the left has become a dark horse in Sunday's French election, which is unfavorable in the short term for the euro and French bonds. The prime minister is likely to be selected from a centrist alliance, and the market will gradually regain stability.

The market is also focused on Fed Chairman Powell's testimony to the Senate on Tuesday and the House of Representatives on Wednesday, as well as a series of speeches by Fed officials and US inflation data to be released on Thursday. The US will also issue 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds this week, and Friday will kick off the second quarter earnings season for US stocks.

The S&P and Nasdaq both set new highs for five consecutive days, Tesla rose for nine consecutive days, Apple closed at a new high and became the largest market cap, Nvidia rose nearly 1.9%, and TSMC set a new high.

On Monday, July 9th, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both set new closing highs.

The Nasdaq, mainly composed of technology stocks, hit a new intraday high and rose more than 0.35%, breaking through the 18,400 integer mark. The S&P 500 rose nearly 0.29% to a new intraday high of 5,567.19 points, but gave back some of its gains towards the end of the day. The Dow Jones, which is dominated by blue chip stocks, fell from midday highs and ended the day lower, breaking the one-month high. The Russell small-cap stock index maintained its upward trend and had the relatively largest gain among major indexes.

As of the close, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 all set new closing highs, marking the 35th and 24th new high respectively this year.

The S&P 500 rose 5.66 points, or 0.10%, to close at 5,572.85. The Dow Jones fell 31.08 points, or 0.08%, to close at 39,344.79. The Nasdaq rose 50.98 points, or 0.28%, to close at 18,403.74.

The Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.23%, reaching a new high, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization-Weighted Index (NDXTMC) rose by 0.46% to a new high, closing above the 1800-point mark for the first time in history. The Russell 2000 small-cap stocks rose by 0.59%, and the "fear index" VIX fell by 0.96% to 12.36%.

At the opening, the Dow and small-cap stocks saw panic buying. By the close of the European session, the gains in US stocks began to fall, and major indices briefly turned lower.

Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index, the S&P Information Technology/Technology sector rose by 0.72%, while the financial sector fell by over 0.1%. The energy sector fell by about 0.6%, and the telecommunication services sector fell by 1.01%.

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have issued warnings on Monday, believing that there is a great risk of a recent sell-off in US stocks, and traders should be prepared. Goldman Sachs expert Rubner stated in a report to clients on Monday that he expects large-scale outflows of funds from US stocks in August. He wrote: "Buyers are out of ammunition, and I'm watching for outflows of funds. I've actually switched to tactical puts. The painful trading has turned from upside to downside." Morgan Stanley strategist Wilson believes: "I think there is a very high probability of a 10% pullback between now and the election. The third quarter will be very volatile. From now until the end of the year, the likelihood of stock price increases is very low, much lower than normal."

In the S&P 500, the top 10 constituent stocks account for 18% of the index's total value, the second highest concentration in history, which may obscure the true volatility of the overall market.

In addition, Andrew Tyler of JPMorgan's trading department said he remains bullish, but the recent weak economic data has caused his confidence to "slightly decline". Citigroup's Scott Chronert also warned of a potential pullback.

The rise and fall of popular tech stocks varied. Tesla rose 0.56%, achieving nine consecutive gains and a cumulative increase of 38.5% on the 9th; Apple rose 0.65% to a record high, already rising for five days in a row, surpassing Microsoft's market value to regain first place; Google, Microsoft, and Meta fell from the historic highs set last Friday, with Microsoft down 0.28%, Google A down 0.82%, and "metaverse" Meta down 1.96%, Amazon down 0.36%, and Netflix down 0.71%.

Chip stocks rose across the board. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.93% to a record high, and the industry ETF SOXX rose 1.9%. Nvidia rose nearly 4%, then halved its gains to close up 1.88%, with a market value of 3.15 trillion US dollars, ranking third in the US stock market. The doubled long ETF of Nvidia rose 3.67%. In addition, Arm, TSMC, KLA, and Super Micro Computer all reached new highs. TSMC rose more than 4% at one point, and its market value surpassed 1 trillion US dollars, closing up 1.43% with a market value of 968.05 billion US dollars. Arm rose 1.94%, broke through the 185 integer level, realized four consecutive gains, and the four-day increase was 16.3%, KLA rose 1.33%, Intel surged 6.15%, AMD rose 3.95%, Broadcom rose 2.5%, Qualcomm rose 1.04%, and Micron Technology fell 0.6%.

In addition, Boeing rose 3.6% at one point but then turned down, finally closing up 0.6%. The company will plead guilty to fraud charges for violating the 737 Max fatal crash settlement agreement, but the oxygen mask malfunction has prompted the Federal Aviation Administration FAA to require inspections of 2,600 Boeing 737 planes.

Among the popular Chinese concept stocks, Ke Holdings fell by about 4%, Alibaba fell by about 1.4%, Ideal fell by over 1.3%, Baidu and JD.com fell by about 1.1%, Douyu fell by over 0.8%, Vipshop fell by about 0.7%, New Oriental fell by about 0.6%, Ctrip fell by 0.4%, NetEase fell by over 0.2%, while ZTO Express rose by 0.7%, Bilibili rose by over 2.4%, Sohu.com rose by over 5.1%, and GDS Holdings rose by over 9.1%. XPeng fell by over 6%, and the company confirmed that the head of the automotive technology center had resigned. Niu Technologies rose by 16% and will expand its retail business to more than 800 Best Buy stores across the United States.

AI concept stocks have mixed performance. Super Micro Computer rose by 6.23%, Dell Technologies by 5.04%, BigBear.ai by 3.5%, Palantir by 1.73%, CrowdStrike by 0.26%, SoundHound.ai by 0.24%, and Oracle by 0.14%. C3.ai fell by 0.13%, and Snowflake fell by 1.01%.

On the news front:

UBS Group raised Nvidia's target price from $120 to $150.

Microsoft, Qualcomm: Is the AI PC that Microsoft and Qualcomm are hyping up actually not worthwhile? This year, only 3% of the personal computers (PCs) shipped can meet the processing power threshold of what Microsoft considers to be an AI PC, according to the industry research company IDC. In 2026, AI PCs will account for only about 20% of the global new PC shipments, equivalent to about one-fifth of the shipments in two years. Analysts believe that the practicality of AI PCs is limited because, other than Microsoft, few software manufacturers are developing and using new chips to optimize computer performance for AI tasks. Large PC manufacturers have proposed adjusting software so that AI tools can be used directly on new computers when they are released, but this request has been rejected by app manufacturers such as Adobe, Salesforce and SentinelOne.

Corning, a glass company and Apple supplier, rose 12%, the largest single-day gain since March 2020, leading all S&P 500 components together with Super Micro Computer and Intel. According to preliminary performance reports, the company's core sales were better than Wall Street expected, and it is expected that core sales in the second quarter will exceed the original guidance.

TSMC: MediaTek and Qualcomm's flagship mobile phone chips were both released in Q4, and TSMC has received another large order for 3nm. According to analysts from several Wall Street investment banks, due to the continued tightness of the global high-end wafer foundry, TSMC will raise its full-year sales expectations in next week's financial report. Previously, Morgan Stanley raised TSMC's target price by 9.3%, citing expectations for the sustainability of AI semiconductor demand and the trend of rising wafer prices. It is expected that wafer prices will rise by 5% in 2025, compared with a previous assumption of 2%. Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight rating on TSMC, raising the target price from NT$1,080 to NT$1,180.

Apple: According to people familiar with the industrial chain, Apple has raised its stocking goal for the iPhone 16 series to around 90 million units this year. High-level executives of Apple's industrial chain companies analyzed that during the 618 e-commerce promotion period in June, Apple adopted a price reduction promotion strategy. After the iPhone 15 series was reduced in price, sales increased significantly, which may have boosted Apple's sales expectations for the iPhone 16 series.

Samsung: The largest labor union under South Korea's Samsung Electronics held a general strike on July 8, with 6,540 people participating in the rain. Currently, Samsung's share of the global synchronous dynamic random access memory market is about 20%, while its share in the flash memory chip market is as high as 40%. Analysts pointed out that if Samsung's production is interrupted, it may cause chain reactions around the world and affect the stability of the entire industry.

Most China concept stocks fell. Among the ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) dropped by 0.51%. The Chinese internet ETF (KWEB) fell by 0.98%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell by 1.05%, breaking below the 5,900 point mark. In the popular China concept stocks, Xiaopeng fell more than 5.9%, Beike fell by about 4%, Alibaba fell by about 1.4%, Xpeng fell more than 1.3%, Baidu and JD.com fell by about 1.1%, Douyu fell more than 0.8%, Vipshop fell by about 0.7%, New Oriental fell by about 0.6%, Ctrip fell 0.4%, and Netease fell more than 0.2%, while ZTO Express rose 0.7%, Bilibili rose more than 2.4%, Sohu rose more than 5.1%, and GDS Holdings rose more than 9.1%.

Internationally, due to no single political party winning a majority, the focus has now shifted to who will take over France. Although this may ease concerns about extremist policies, it has also raised concerns about increased political instability, as difficult negotiations lie ahead. The French stock market fell more than 0.6%. Analysts say that the left has become a dark horse in Sunday's French election, which is unfavorable in the short term for the euro and French bonds. The prime minister is likely to be selected from a centrist alliance, and the market will gradually regain stability.

Among stocks with significant volatility:

Biopharmaceutical company Morphic rose 75.06% on Monday. Lilly announced that it will acquire Morphic for $57 per share in cash, a premium of 79% over the closing price last Friday. The deal values Morphic at about $3.2 billion. The transaction is not subject to any financing conditions and is expected to be completed in the third quarter.

Gold and silver mining stocks generally fell. Among gold and silver mining concept stocks, Gold Fields fell more than 2.6%, Pan American Silver fell more than 1.7%, and Barrick Gold fell by 1.6%; the gold ETF GLD fell by 1.4%, GDX fell by 1.8%, and silver ETF SLV fell by more than 2%.

Copper mining concept stocks generally fell, with BHP Group Ltd. falling 2%, Freeport McMoRan falling 1.7%, Rio Tinto falling 1.2%, and Southern Copper falling 1.1%; the ETF COPX fell 2.2%.

In 2020, the company's overall sales volume was 18,000 kiloliters, up 28.10% year-on-year, a significant increase. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products in the range of 10-30 billion yuan was 401/1288/60 million yuan, respectively.

Unexpectedly, no party won an absolute majority in the second round of elections in the French parliament. European stocks fell back in the afternoon, with only the Italian stock index up. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 0.03%, erasing the intraday gain of 0.6%. The French stock market rose 0.9% at the beginning of the day and then fell by 0.6%. Semiconductor stock ASML Holdings hit a new high for two consecutive days, while LVMH and KERING SA both fell by at least 2.8%.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries erased its increase of 5 basis points, while the yield on French government bonds opened high and fell back in the afternoon.

Sensitive to monetary policy, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 2.08 basis points to 4.6243%, ending a three-day downtrend after the release of the U.S. nonfarm payroll report, the opening of Fed Chairman Powell's semi-annual hearing and the release of U.S. CPI data. The 10-year basic bond yield fell 0.59 basis points and has fallen for four consecutive days, trading in the range of 4.3155%-4.2627% during the trading session.

US Treasuries fluctuated narrowly, with long-term bonds performing slightly better.

The 10-year benchmark German bond yield fell 1.6 basis points to 2.540% at the close. The 2-year German bond yield rose 1.7 basis points to 2.906% and rose to a daily high of 2.937%.

The 10-year French bond yield fell by 4.5 basis points to 3.167%. In the case of the left alliance winning the French parliamentary election on Sunday, it showed a "high opening and low closing" throughout the day, with the overall trading range during the day being 3.259%-3.164%; Italian 10-year bond yields fell by 4.7 basis points due to the impact of the French bond market, and Spanish 10-year bond yields fell by 3.8 basis points, while Greek 10-year bond yields fell by 4.6 basis points. UK 10-year bond yields fell by 1.2 basis points to 4.113%.

The U.S. dollar rose after falling and pulled away from a three-week low, while the euro rose and then fell back, and the yen rose above 161, with offshore renminbi rising above 7.29.

A basket of currencies measured by the DXY of the U.S. dollar rose 0.13% to 105.014 points after trading in the range of 104.801-105.034 points during the day. Bloomberg's U.S. dollar index rose 0.02% to 1260.56 points, trading in the range of 1259.13-1261.35 points during the day.

The U.S. dollar first fell and then rose away from a more than three-week low.

At 04:59 Beijing time, offshore renminbi (CNH) was reported at 7.2857 against the US dollar, up 32 points from the New York closing price last Friday, with overall trading ranging from 7.2930-7.2844 yuan.

During the U.S. stock trading session, the euro fell slightly but remained close to a four-week high above 1.08. The pound rose slightly and remained above 1.28, hitting its highest level since June 12 during the session.

During the European stock market, the yen fell below the 161 level, and during the U.S. stock market, the yen stopped falling and rose back to the 160.70 level, trading at a one week high, having hit its lowest level since 1986 at 162 last Wednesday.

During the Asian trading session, the offshore renminbi was below 7.29 yuan for a sustained period, and rose above this level before the U.S. stock market opened and stopped falling, rising 70 points to a two-week high during the day, having hit an eight-month low of 7.31 yuan last week.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies rose and fell. The largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin, rose nearly 1% and rose above 0.056 million US dollars, having dropped to its lowest level since February on Friday. The second largest, Ethereum, rose nearly 2% and rose above 2900 US dollars, leaving its low since mid-May.

According to data from CoinShares International, during the week of July 5, digital cryptocurrency asset products had an inflow of 0.441 billion US dollars, the first weekly inflow in the past month.

Bitcoin fell to around $54,000 overnight, but panicked buying during European trading pushed it above $58,000, before falling back to $55,000 during the U.S. stock market session.

Hurricane Beryl had limited impact, and international oil prices fell by about 1%, further retreating after hitting a two-month high last Thursday.

Oil prices fluctuated downward all day. WTI August crude futures closed down $0.83, a drop of nearly 1%, at $82.33 per barrel. Brent September futures closed down $0.79, a drop of over 0.91%, at $85.75 per barrel.

The price of U.S. crude oil, WTI, fell the most during trading, down 1.3% or $1, pushing it below the $82 mark and erasing nearly half of its gains since July 1. Last Friday, it hit a high of $84.53 during trading, its highest level since April 19. International Brent crude oil also fell the most, down 1.1% or $1, reaching its highest level since April 30 during trading and nearing $88.

Analysis shows that the market has assessed the short-term impact of Hurricane Beryl on supplies. The National Hurricane Center reported that it landed in Texas, USA as a Category 1 hurricane before being downgraded to a tropical storm, with wind speeds dropping from 80 miles per hour to 60 miles per hour, and is expected to weaken further, avoiding the worst-case scenario that investors were worried about, where oil companies might incur operating losses, leading to a drop in oil prices.

Oil prices slipped from highs.

US natural gas futures for August rose more than 2.02% to $2.3660 per million British thermal units. US RBOB gasoline futures closed at $2.5379 per gallon, US heating oil futures closed at $2.5791 per gallon.

Pipeline transportation company Enbridge suspended operation of its natural gas storage facility (with a capacity of up to 31.122 billion cubic feet) in Tres Palacios, Texas, due to Hurricane Beryl's landing in the area.

In addition, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that bullish sentiment for WTI among speculators rose to a new high of about nine months. In the week of July 2, speculators' net long position in NYMEX WTI crude oil increased by 13,265 contracts to 249,081 contracts. Net long positions of NYMEX gasoline fell to 31,229 contracts, while net short positions of NYMEX heating oil fell to 376 contracts, reaching a new low of over five weeks.

Gold prices fell more than 1.6%, giving up all their gains since the non-farm payroll release last Friday and further declining. The silver futures once fell 3% during the session.

On Monday, the U.S. dollar's rise was bearish for precious metals prices. COMEX Gold futures for August fell more than 1.35% at the close of trading to $2,365.30 per ounce, while COMEX Silver futures for September fell 2.36% to $30.940 per ounce during trading and fell 3% intraday.

Spot gold fell moderately in pre-U.S. stock trading, but U.S. stocks fell sharply at the opening, falling nearly 1.7% to close at $2,351.24 per ounce, falling below $2,360 per ounce, the high of May 21.

Similarly, spot silver plunged during U.S. trading, falling more than 2.5% to below $30.5, falling below $31 per ounce for the first time since June 7, which hit its highest level since June 2 last Friday.

Other metals such as platinum and palladium also fell more than 2%.

However, many analysts are still bullish on the trend of gold, and the market is waiting for inflation data this week. Some analysts believe that based on the expected rate cut of the Fed in September, if US CPI data is lower than expected again, the gold price is expected to further rise.

The latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that speculators' bullish sentiment on gold cooled. In the week of July 2nd, speculators reduced their net long position on COMEX gold by 6,169 contracts to 178,541 contracts. The net long position for COMEX silver was reduced to 32,472 contracts, while the net long position for COMEX copper was reduced to 34,885 contracts, setting a new low in over three months.

The gold price fell more than 1.6%, giving back all the gains since last Friday's non-farm payrolls.

London's basic metal prices were mixed, with zinc falling more than 1.5% and tin rising more than 1%:

"The copper doctor", a key economic indicator, fell by $0.29 to $9915 per ton. London aluminum fell by $4 to $2532 per ton. London zinc fell by $46, a decrease of more than 1.53%, to $2956 per ton. London lead fell by $6 to $2232 per ton. London nickel rose by $132 to $17473 per ton. London tin rose by $344, an increase of more than 1.01%, to $34218 per ton.

In addition, international copper night trading fell by 0.24%, Shanghai copper fell by 0.24%, Shanghai aluminum fell by 0.10%, Shanghai zinc fell by 0.81%, Shanghai lead fell by 0.15%, Shanghai nickel fell by 0.27%, and Shanghai tin fell by 0.90%.

CBOT soybean futures once fell more than 3% to a new intraday low since November 2020. Hurricane Bella is expected to bring good news for rainfall and crop production in the US Midwest. At the close, Chicago corn and wheat futures fell by at least 3.6%.