The Zhitong Finance App learned that in the 7 days up to July 7, Russian crude oil exports recorded the biggest decline since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, and the less volatile four-week average fell to its lowest level since February this year. Ship tracking data and port agency reports show that for the week ending July 7, a total of 25 tankers carried 18.7 million barrels of Russian crude oil. This figure is a sharp drop from 25.66 million barrels the previous week.
In the week ending July 7, the average daily crude oil transportation volume from Russia dropped by about 0.99 million barrels to 2.67 million barrels, the lowest level since the last week of January. At that time, the storm caused the Pacific port of Kozmino to drop drastically. The less volatile four-week average also fell by about 0.215 million barrels per day to a 20-week low of 3.27 million barrels.
The reason for the decline in export volumes is unclear. There were no gaps in the loading plan, which indicates that no maintenance work was carried out, and there were no reports of the storm affecting the berthing or loading of ships.
Russia is stepping up efforts to comply with OPEC+ production targets, which may result in less crude oil available for export. According to Russia's conversion factor of 7.18 barrels per ton, daily production fell by about 0.36 million barrels between March and June. The recovery in refinery operating rates may also have reduced exports. Data from the first few days of July showed that oil refining reached the highest level since December last year, as seasonal maintenance and repair work after the Ukrainian attack was completed.
In the 7 days up to July 7, the total value of Russian crude oil exports also declined, but rising oil prices for the fourth week in a row buffered this decline.
Furthermore, most tankers transporting Russian crude oil have been idle after Western sanctions. Of the 21 ships owned by Sovcomflot PJSC, a Russian state-owned company, 3 disappeared from the automatic tracking system after loading cargo, while the others remained idle.