On July 11th, Gelonghui reported that according to the investor relations activity log of Asia-Potash International Investment (000893.SZ), the overall potassium fertilizer market this year has shown a tight supply and demand situation, supporting a positive outlook for the potassium fertilizer market. In terms of demand, Argus expects global potassium fertilizer demand to reach 68.2 million tons in 2023 and 73.1 million tons in 2024. This year, due to extreme weather in Brazil, Russia, the United States, and other regions around the world, global food prices have risen. According to the FAO food price index released in May, the average index for May was 118.7 points, up 7.1 points (6.3%) from the previous month. The increase in grain prices can stimulate downstream farmers' enthusiasm for planting and drive up the demand for agricultural potassium fertilizer.
On the supply side, the influence of geopolitics still exists, leading to great uncertainty in global potassium fertilizer supply. In Belarus, according to the USGS report in 2024, both the production and export volume in 2023 will be lower than that in 2022. Although Belarus has turned to exporting potassium fertilizer to China and Russia via rail due to sanctions, its export volume is still restricted. As for Russia, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has weakened compared to 2022, but it still persists. At the same time, major potassium fertilizer factories, including Canpotex, Uralkali, and Belaruskali, have seen a significant increase in logistics transportation costs, supply chain procurement costs, and other costs in recent years, significantly increasing overall sales costs and supporting the upward trend of potassium fertilizer market prices in the medium and long term.
