来自最新高级财务官调查的证据是有一点用处，但就像是联邦基金利率-准备金余额利率（IORB）利差一样，其仅反映了单一时点的需求，并没有提供有关不同供应水平下需求可能如何变化的线索，也没有提供有关一旦跌破最低合意水平后，银行在竞相恢复其余额方面会有多积极。Barclays strategist Joseph Abate wrote in a report that as bank reserves reach $3.1 trillion, the Fed may have to end quantitative tightening in December. This view is consistent with his previous predictions.
The normalization process of the Fed's balance sheet has been very smooth, and there has been no pressure on the funding market.
Abate wrote that the critical point of reserves depends on the relationship between the Fed's supply and the unknown and time-varying level of bank demand.
Evidence from the latest senior financial officer survey is somewhat useful, but like the federal funds rate-IOER spread, it only reflects demand at a single point in time and does not provide clues as to how demand may change at different supply levels, or how aggressively banks will compete to restore their balances once they fall below the lowest acceptable level.
By studying two reserve demand models, Barclays estimates that the banking industry is approaching the steeper part of the demand curve, estimated at around $3.1 trillion - assuming reverse repo balances are close to zero.
Note: The latest data from the Fed shows that bank reserves are about $3.32 trillion.
