Cumulative sales of heavy trucks in the first half of the year increased by only 3%, and the market pressure will be very high in the second half of the year.

Zhitong Finance · Jul 11 02:48

智通财经APP获悉，第一商用车网指出，2024年1-6月，重卡市场累计销售50.45万辆，在近五年里看处于中等水平(但与2020年、2021年上半年销量差距非常大，还不足2021年上半年销量的一半)，比上年同期的48.85万辆增长3%，净增长约1.6万辆，累计销量增幅呈逐月缩窄态势(如上图)。从单月销量来看，6月份重卡市场7.14万辆的销量在今年上半年是倒数第二，这一水平放在2023年里仅能排到第8位(今年3月份和4月份销量放到2023年里分别能排到第1位和第5位，5月份销量也能排到第6位)。从各个角度看，今年6月份重卡市场的表现都不好看，半年收官仅有3%的累计增幅，今年下半年重卡市场的压力将会非常大。

根据中汽协数据(企业开票数口径，非终端实销口径，下同)，2024年6月份，我国卡车市场(含底盘、牵引车)共计销售29.4万辆，环比今年5月份下降2%，同比也出现下滑，降幅为5%。这其中，重型卡车市场(含底盘、牵引车)销售7.14万辆，环比5月份下降9%，同比下降17%，同比增幅从上月(+1%)遭遇转负，与卡车市场整体走势一样的，重卡市场在6月份也交出环比、同比双降的成绩单。值得一提的是，重卡市场已连续3个月出现环比下滑。

纵观近五年6月份重卡市场销量及增幅走势图可见，最近五年6月份的重卡市场仅有两年实现增长，其中2020年6月大增63%，销量达到16.93万辆，是近五年6月份销量的极值;随后连续两年6月份重卡市场都出现下滑，2022年6月份在大降65%后销量跌至不足6万辆;2023年6月份重卡市场同比大幅增长了57%，但也仅有8.65万辆(约相当于2020年6月份销量的一半);2024年6月份，重卡市场面对并不高的同期销量，同比下降了17%，7.14万辆的销量在近五年里为倒数第二，这一水平还不及2020年6月份和2021年6月份销量的一半，就算把时间线拉长到近8年来看，同样是倒数水平。

2024年1-6月，重卡市场累计销售50.45万辆，在近五年里看处于中等水平(但与2020年、2021年上半年销量差距非常大，还不足2021年上半年销量的一半)，比上年同期的48.85万辆增长3%，净增长约1.6万辆，累计销量增幅呈逐月缩窄态势(如上图)。从单月销量来看，6月份重卡市场7.14万辆的销量在今年上半年是倒数第二，这一水平放在2023年里仅能排到第8位(今年3月份和4月份销量放到2023年里分别能排到第1位和第5位，5月份销量也能排到第6位)。从各个角度看，今年6月份重卡市场的表现都不好看，半年收官仅有3%的累计增幅，今年下半年重卡市场的压力将会非常大。

TOP4破万辆，陕汽/东风升月榜2/3位，红岩2连增

2024年6月重型卡车(含底盘、牵引车)市场销量表(单位：辆)

上表可见，2024年6月重卡市场同比下降17%，约比去年6月份少销售1.51万辆。6月份，重卡市场继续有4家企业销量破万辆，月销万辆企业数与前几月持平，重汽、陕汽、东风、解放4家企业分别销售1.9万辆、1.35万辆、1.22万辆和1.13万辆。6月份，重卡市场销量前十企业合计份额达到96.07%，行业前五企业合计份额达到85.86%，其中排名前4位的重汽、陕汽、东风和解放月度份额均超过15%，分别达到26.63%、18.96%、17.11%和15.82%。2024年1-6月，重卡行业前五企业合计份额分别达到91.92%、89.51%、89.78%、87.66%、87.42%和85.86%，行业前五企业在2024年表现仍然非常强势，但合计份额在二季度的3个月较一季度已有明显缩窄。

从增幅来看，6月份重卡市场销量前十企业2增8降：东风和红岩同比分别增长了5%和60%，其中红岩已是“2连增”;重汽、陕汽、大运、徐工、北奔等企业均是个位数小降，销量出现同比下滑但跑赢重卡市场“大盘”;与此同时，有3家企业同比降幅达到两位数(其中福田和江淮跑赢重卡市场“大盘”)，下滑最严重的企业同比下降了52%。值得一提的是，北奔6月份销量同比出现下滑，北奔这一轮自去年8月份开始的连增势头最终定格在“10连增”，非常遗憾。

从行业格局看，2024年6月份重卡市场行业前十成员与上月相同，排名则出现了不小变化：5月份排名3、4位的陕汽和东风双双上升一位至6月份月榜第2、3位，5月份排名9、10位的北奔和红岩双双上升一位至6月份月榜第8、9位。与此同时，也有不止一家企业排名出现下滑。

上半年累销增长3%，最大增量来自重汽、东风、解放

从累计销量看，2024年1-6月，我国重卡市场累计销售50.45万辆，同比累计增长3%，较去年同期累计多销售约1.6万辆，约是去年同期销量的1.03倍。

具体到累计销量前十企业来看(同时也是6月份销量前十)，8增2降，大多数企业处于上升区间，其中重汽、解放、东风、大运、徐工、北奔和红岩累计销量增幅高于市场整体增速，6月过后，上述7家企业累计销量同比分别增长了7%、5%、6%、5%、7%、10%和10%，陕汽上半年累计销量同比增长了2.6%。与此同时，下滑的两家企业目前的累计销量降幅均达到两位数。值得一提的是，今年1-6月份重卡市场1.6万辆的增量中，重汽、东风和解放贡献最大，分别贡献了9600余辆、4900余辆和4700余辆的增量。

从累计份额看，销量前十企业合计份额达到97.02%，行业前五合计份额就达到88.85%(较1-5月的89.34%有所缩窄)，其中排名前两位的重汽和解放累计份额双双超过20%，两大巨头合计分食了今年上半年重卡市场接近一半的份额(48.67%，这一数字较前几月也有所缩窄);5名之后的企业份额均低于3%，6名之后的企业市场份额甚至均不足2%。

2024年上半年，重卡市场行业前十成员与去年年终前十成员保持一致，排名出现了一些变化，东风从去年年终第4上升至目前的行业第3，徐工从去年年终第8位上升至目前的行业第7。与去年同期相比，重汽、东风、解放等企业市场份额有所提升，上述三家企业今年上半年累计份额较去年同期分别提升了1.06个百分点、0.47个百分点和0.27个百分点，大运、徐工、北奔和红岩的市场份额较去年同期也略有提升，其他企业市场份额较去年同期均出现不同程度下滑。

第一商用车网指出，2024年6月份，重卡市场交出销售7.14万辆，环比下降9%、同比下降17%的 “成绩单”，上半年经历3增3降后以累计销量小幅增长3%收官上半年，这显然是一个让人对下半年的市场乐观不起来的半程表现。接下来的7月份和8月份，在重卡行业里属于淡季，同期基数并不高(分别仅有6万辆出头和7万辆出头)，7月份重获增长的希望很大，8月份能否收获2024年的首次“连增”，或者说2024年重卡市场的首次“连增”会在几月份到来，将是下半年重卡市场的一大看点。

Zhitong Finance App learned that from January to June 2024, the first commercial vehicle network indicated that the heavy truck market sold 0.5045 million vehicles in the past five years (but the sales gap with 2020 and the first half of 2021 was very large, less than half of the sales volume in the first half of 2021), an increase of 3% over 0.4885 million vehicles in the same period last year, a net increase of about 0.016 million vehicles, and the cumulative sales growth rate was shrinking month by month (as shown above). In terms of monthly sales, the sales volume of 0.0714 million vehicles in the heavy truck market in June was second-to-last. This level only ranked 8th in 2023 (sales in March and April of this year can rank 1st and 5th respectively in 2023, and sales in May can also rank 6th). From every perspective, the heavy truck market did not perform well in June this year. At the end of the half year, there was only a 3% cumulative increase. The pressure on the heavy truck market in the second half of this year will be huge.

According to data from the China Automobile Association (corporate invoice volume, non-terminal actual sales volume, same below), in June 2024, China's truck market (including chassis and tractors) sold a total of 0.294 million vehicles, down 2% from May this year. There was also a year-on-year decline, with a year-on-year decline of 5%. Among these, the heavy truck market (including chassis and tractors) sold 0.0714 million vehicles, down 9% from May and 17% year on year. The year-on-year increase turned negative last month (+1%). Similar to the overall trend of the truck market, the heavy truck market also handed over report cards for both month-on-month and year-on-year declines in June. It is worth mentioning that the heavy truck market has experienced a month-on-month decline for 3 consecutive months.

Looking at the trend chart of the heavy truck market sales volume and growth rate in the past five to six months, the heavy truck market achieved growth in only two years, of which the heavy truck market surged 63% in June 2020, reaching 0.1693 million units, which is the extreme value of sales in the past five to six months; the heavy truck market then declined for two consecutive years and 6 months. After a sharp drop of 65% in June 2022, sales fell to less than 0.06 million vehicles; in June 2023, the heavy truck market increased sharply by 57% year-on-year, but only 0.0865 million vehicles (about 0.0865 million vehicles) (Equivalent to half of sales in June 2020); In June 2024, the heavy truck market faced low sales volume, down 17% year on year. Sales of 0.0714 million vehicles were second-to-last in the past five years. This level is less than half of sales in June 2020 and June 2021. Even if the timeline is extended to nearly 8 years, it is also the inverse level.

From January to June 2024, the heavy truck market sold a cumulative total of 0.5045 million vehicles, which is considered to be at a moderate level in the past five years (but the sales gap with 2020 and the first half of 2021 is very large, less than half of the sales volume in the first half of 2021), up 3% from 0.4885 million vehicles in the same period last year, with a net increase of about 0.016 million vehicles. The cumulative sales increase is shrinking month by month (as shown above). In terms of monthly sales, the sales volume of 0.0714 million vehicles in the heavy truck market in June was second-to-last. This level only ranked 8th in 2023 (sales in March and April of this year can rank 1st and 5th respectively in 2023, and sales in May can also rank 6th). From every perspective, the heavy truck market did not perform well in June this year. At the end of the half year, there was only a 3% cumulative increase. The pressure on the heavy truck market in the second half of this year will be huge.

TOP4 broke 10,000 vehicles, Shaanxi Auto/Dongfeng ascended 2/3 of the Moon list, and Hongyan increased 2 times in a row

Heavy truck (including chassis and tractor) market sales volume table for June 2024 (unit)

As can be seen from the table above, the heavy truck market declined 17% year on year in June 2024, which is about 0.0151 million fewer vehicles sold than in June last year. In June, 4 companies continued to sell more than 10,000 vehicles in the heavy truck market. The number of companies selling 10,000 vehicles per month remained the same as in previous months. The four companies of Sinotruk, Shaanxi Automobile, Dongfeng, and Jiefang sold 0.019 million, 0.0135 million, 0.0122 million, and 11,300 vehicles respectively. In June, the total share of the top ten heavy truck market sales companies reached 96.07%, and the total share of the top five companies in the industry reached 85.86%. Among them, the top 4 Sinotruk, Shaanxi Automobile, Dongfeng and Jiefang all had monthly shares of more than 15%, reaching 26.63%, 18.96%, 17.11%, and 15.82% respectively. From January to June 2024, the total share of the top five companies in the heavy truck industry reached 91.92%, 89.51%, 89.78%, 87.66%, 87.42% and 85.86%, respectively. The top five companies in the industry are still very strong in 2024, but their total share has narrowed significantly in the three months of the second quarter compared to the first quarter.

Judging from the increase, the top ten companies in the heavy truck market saw 2 increases and 8 drops in sales in June: Dongfeng and Hongyan increased 5% and 60%, respectively, of which Hongyan had “2 consecutive increases”; companies such as Sinotruk, Shaanxi Automobile, Dayun, Xugong, and Beiben all dropped slightly in single digits, showing a year-on-year decline in sales but outperforming the “big market” of the heavy truck market; at the same time, the three companies with the most severe year-on-year decline reached double digits (of which Futian and JAC beat the “big market” in the heavy truck market), and the company with the worst decline fell 52% year on year. It is worth mentioning that Beiben's sales volume declined year on year in June. This round of continuous growth in Beiben, which began in August last year, was finally fixed at “10 consecutive increases”, which is very unfortunate.

Looking at the industry pattern, the top ten members of the heavy truck market in June 2024 were the same as last month, and the rankings changed quite a bit: Shaanxi Automobile and Dongfeng, which ranked 3rd and 4th in May, both rose 1 place to 2nd and 3rd place in the June monthly list, and Beiben and Hongyan, which ranked 9th and 10th in May, both rose 1 place to 8th and 9th place in the June monthly list. At the same time, there was also a decline in the ranking of more than one company.

Cumulative sales increased 3% in the first half of the year. The biggest increase came from Sinotruk, Dongfeng, and Jiefang

Looking at cumulative sales volume, from January to June 2024, China's heavy truck market sold a total of 0.5045 million vehicles, a cumulative increase of 3% over the same period last year. The cumulative sales volume of 0.016 million vehicles increased over the same period last year, which is about 1.03 times the sales volume for the same period last year.

Specifically, looking at the top ten companies with cumulative sales volume (which is also the top ten sales volume in June), most companies are in an upward range. Among them, the cumulative sales growth of Sinotruk, Jiefang, Dongfeng, Dayun, Xugong, Beiben, and Hongyan was higher than the overall market growth rate. After June, the cumulative sales volume of the above 7 companies increased 7%, 5%, 7%, 10%, and 10%, respectively. The cumulative sales volume of Shaanxi Automobile increased 2.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year. At the same time, the cumulative sales decline of the two companies that have declined has now reached double digits. It is worth mentioning that of the 0.016 million vehicle increase in the heavy truck market from January to June this year, Sinotruk, Dongfeng, and Jiefang contributed the most, contributing more than 9,600 vehicles, 4,900 vehicles, and 4,700 vehicles respectively.

In terms of cumulative share, the total share of the top ten sales companies reached 97.02%, and the total share of the top five companies in the industry reached 88.85% (down from 89.34% in January-May). Among them, the top two companies both had a cumulative share of more than 20%, and the two giants collectively shared nearly half of the heavy truck market share in the first half of this year (48.67%. This figure is also narrower than the previous few months); the share of companies after 5 was less than 3%, and the market share of companies after 6 was even less than 2%.

In the first half of 2024, the top ten members of the heavy truck market industry remained consistent with the top ten members at the end of last year, and there were some changes in the ranking. Dongfeng rose from 4th place at the end of last year to 3rd in the current industry, and XCMG rose from 8th place at the end of last year to 7th place in the current industry. Compared with the same period last year, the market share of companies such as Sinotruk, Dongfeng, and Jiefang increased. The cumulative shares of the above three companies in the first half of this year increased by 1.06 percentage points, 0.47 percentage points, and 0.27 percentage points respectively. The market shares of Dayun, Xugong, Beiben and Hongyan also increased slightly compared to the same period last year, and the market shares of other companies all declined to varying degrees compared to the same period last year.

First Commercial Vehicle Network pointed out that in June 2024, the heavy truck market handed over sales of 0.0714 million vehicles, a “report card” of 9% month-on-month decline and 17% year-on-year decline. After experiencing 3 increases and 3 declines in the first half of the year, the first half of the year ended with a slight 3% increase in cumulative sales volume. This is clearly a half-time performance that makes people less optimistic about the market in the second half of the year. The next month of July and August will be a low season in the heavy truck industry. The base for the same period is not high (only 0.06 million vehicles and 70,000 vehicles, respectively), and there is great hope for regaining growth in July. Whether August can reap the first “continuous increase” in 2024, or the first “continuous increase” in the heavy truck market in 2024 will arrive in what month. It will be a major highlight of the heavy truck market in the second half of the year.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

重卡上半年销量累计增幅仅3% 下半年市场压力将会非常大

Cumulative sales of heavy trucks in the first half of the year increased by only 3%, and the market pressure will be very high in the second half of the year.

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