Intellisense Finance learned that the Silicon Industry Branch issued a document stating that the price of monocrystalline silicon wafers has remained stable this week. Among them, the average transaction price of N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*183.75 mm/130μm/256 mm) remains at 1.12 yuan/piece, which is the same as last week. The average transaction price of N-type G12R monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*210 mm/130μm) remains at 1.31 yuan/piece, without change from last week. The average transaction price of N-type G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210*210 mm/150μm) remains at 1.65 yuan/piece, without change from last week. The starting rates of two first-tier enterprises this week were maintained at 50% and 95%, respectively. The starting rates of integrated enterprises were maintained between 50%-60%, and the starting rates of other enterprises were maintained between 30%-100%. Overall, in the short term, the stability of silicon wafers is easier to maintain than price increases. In the medium to long term, the exit of silicon material production capacity and the improvement of terminal demand are the two important factors that truly determine the future direction of the industry chain.

In terms of supply, it is expected that silicon wafer production in July will be around 50.6 GW, a decrease of about 0.7 GW from June. Specifically, the increase in July mainly comes from two specialized production enterprises, one of which increased its starting rate and the other brought about capacity gain from the transformation of P-type small-size production capacity to N-type large-size production capacity. The decrease in July mainly comes from other enterprises lowering their starting rates, among which integrated enterprises have the largest proportion of reduction. The decrease is greater than the increase, which has led to a decrease of about 1.4% in output in July compared to the previous month. In addition, companies such as Yuze and Beijing Jingyuntong also have plans to increase their starting rates, and it is not ruled out that the expected output will be raised again through increased production by two companies in the future.

In terms of demand, the forecast for battery production in July is around 49 GW, while the forecast for component production is around 48 GW. At the battery end, the price of M10 monocrystalline TOPCon solar cells remains at 0.3 yuan/W. Battery companies are suffering from serious losses, so even if the supply and demand relationship of silicon wafers improves, the tolerance of batteries for higher prices is very low, and the space for price increases cannot be transmitted downwards. At the component end, the price of 182mm TOPCon double-sided double-glass modules remains at 0.86 yuan/W. Since the beginning of the third quarter, domestic installation projects have gradually started production after the prices in the industry chain stabilized. In the short term, the component end does not feel an obvious impact, but in the medium to long term, the terminal demand in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half of the year.