Inflation Data Sparks Rush For Gold, Real Estate, Treasuries, Yen: Traders See September Rate Cut As Done Deal
Inflation Data Sparks Rush For Gold, Real Estate, Treasuries, Yen: Traders See September Rate Cut As Done Deal
The stars seem to be aligned for a reduction in U.S. interest rates in about two months, as the June inflation report released Thursday may provide policymakers with the confidence that annual consumer price changes are finally trending toward the Fed's 2% target.
六月發佈的通脹報告可能使政策制定者相信，年度消費者物價變化正朝着聯儲局的2%目標趨勢，因此美國的利率可能在大約兩個月內出現降低。
The inflation rate fell from 3.3% in May 2024 to 3% year-over-year in June 2024, the lowest since April 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The outcome fell short of the estimated 3.1%. On a month-over-month basis, the consumer basket contracted by 0.1%, marking the first negative reading since May 2020.
根據勞工統計局的數據，2024年5月的通貨膨脹率從3.3%降至2024年6月的3%，爲2021年4月以來的最低點。結果低於預計的3.1%。從月初至月末，消費品籃的收縮率爲0.1%，標誌着自2020年5月以來的首次負增長。
The data sparked a surge in rate cut bets, triggering a rally in interest-rate-sensitive assets.
數據引發了降息賭注的激增，觸發了利率敏感性資產的大漲。
Market-implied odds for a September rate cut increased from 71% to 91% following the inflation report, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Additionally, the implied cuts by year-end rose to 65 basis points, suggesting between two and three rate cuts.
芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具顯示，通脹報告發布後，9月份降息的市場隱含概率從71%上升至91%。此外，到年底的隱含降息也上漲了65個點子，表明可能會有兩到三次降息。
Investors Flock To Bonds, Low-Yield Currencies, Real Estate Stocks As Rate Cut Bets Rise
隨着降息賭注的升級，投資者湧向債券、低收益貨幣、房地產股票。
Yields on two-year Treasury notes tumbled 10 basis points to 4.51% at 11 a.m. ET, on track to hit the lowest since March. 11. Yields on long-dated Treasuries also fell markedly, sending the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) up by 1.2%.
兩年期國債收益率下跌了10個點子，至11:00am Et的4.51%，有望創下3月以來的最低點。長期國債的收益率也大幅下跌，導致納指100etf-invesco qqq trust(etf代碼NASDAQ:TLT)上漲了1.2%。
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), fell 0.6%, on track for the worst session since mid-May.
紐交所上的景順Db美元指數看漲基金etf股票代碼爲(NYSE:UUP)的美元指數下跌了0.6%，創下自5月中旬以來最糟糕的交易日。
The low-yielding Japanese yen, tracked through the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:FXY), rose 1.8%. The dollar-yen pair dropped to 158.73, marking the second-worst session year-to-date, as traders speculated that a potential Bank of Japan intervention accelerated the move, although authorities did not officially confirm it.
低利率的日元交易在紐約交易所上市的日元etf-currencyshares金融信託(NYSE:FXY)上漲了1.8%。美元兌日元匯率下跌到158.73，是今年迄今爲止的第二個最糟糕的交易日。交易商們推測日本央行可能會進行干預，加速了此次波動，儘管有關當局並沒有正式證實這一點。
Gold prices, as monitored through the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), rallied 1.9% to $2,415 per ounce, marking the best-performing session since mid-December 2023 and nearing all-time highs.
通過SPDR黃金信託的黃金價格上漲了1.9%，至每盎司2415美元，創下了自2023年年底以來最佳業績，接近歷史最高水平。
The broader stock market fell, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), falling 0.4%, and the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) tumbled 1.4%. Rate-sensitive equity sectors and industries reacted differently Thursday, with real estate stocks outperforming.
股市整體下跌，SPDR標普500etf信託(NYSE:SPY)下跌了0.4%，科技重組的納指100etf-invesco qqq trust(NASDAQ:QQQ)暴跌1.4%。隨着降息預期的提高，利率敏感性股票板塊反應不同，房地產股票表現最好。
The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLRE) rose 2.5% by 11 a.m. ET, outperforming all other S&P 500 sectors.
房地產選擇性板塊SPDR基金(NYSE:XLRE)於11:00am Et上漲2.5%，在所有標普500板塊中表現最好。
Among industries, homebuilders, as tracked by the SPDR Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:XHB) soared 5.4%, on track for their best day since mid-December 2023.
房屋建築板塊，由SPDR房屋建築etf基金(NYSE:XHB)跟蹤，於12月中旬以來第一次大漲5.4%。
Chart: Rate-Sensitive Assets Rally After Cooler-Than-Expected June Inflation Report
圖表：通脹報告後敏感資產的反彈
Image: Benzinga Pro
圖片：Benzinga Pro
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Photo via Shutterstock.
圖片來自shutterstock。