Changjiu Holdings Limited (HKG:6959) shares have had a horrible month, losing 64% after a relatively good period beforehand. Longer-term shareholders will rue the drop in the share price, since it's now virtually flat for the year after a promising few quarters.

Even after such a large drop in price, Changjiu Holdings may still be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 57.1x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 9x and even P/E's lower than 5x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Earnings have risen at a steady rate over the last year for Changjiu Holdings, which is generally not a bad outcome. It might be that many expect the reasonable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Changjiu Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 5.8% gain to the company's bottom line. Ultimately though, it couldn't turn around the poor performance of the prior period, with EPS shrinking 34% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 20% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Changjiu Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Even after such a strong price drop, Changjiu Holdings' P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Changjiu Holdings revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Plus, you should also learn about this 1 warning sign we've spotted with Changjiu Holdings.

If you're unsure about the strength of Changjiu Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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