OCBC Estimates 2Q GDP Growth Higher At 4.9%
OCBC Estimates 2Q GDP Growth Higher At 4.9%
OCBC reiterated that its GDP tracking estimates show higher GDP growth of 4.9% YoY in 2Q24 versus 4.2% in 1Q24. The Bank said that this alludes to not only a stronger industrial production growth (average growth of 4.2% YoY in April and May 2024 versus 3.3% in 1Q24) but also better export growth, wholesale and retail trade growth, palm production as well as higher motor vehicle sales. The industrial production index rose by 2.4% YoY in May versue 6.1% in April, below expectations as consensus was 3.6% while OCBC placed it at 5%.
5月工业生产指数同比增长2.4%，低于预期，共识值为3.6%，而华侨银行的估值为5%，相比4月的6.1%，有所下降。
OCBC noted that with GDP growth momentum improving and inflation remaining manageable, it maintained its view for BNM to remain on hold for the rest of 2024.
华侨银行指出，随着GDP增长态势改善和通货膨胀保持可控，其认为BNm将在2024年余下时间内维持利率不变的观点不变。
While IP growth in the mining sector was volatile in May (-6.9% YoY versus +10% in April), manufacturing (4.6% versus 4.9%) and electricity (4.2% versus 7.8%) output remained strong, albeit easing in YoY from April. By-orientation, export-oriented IP growth picked up to 3.7% YoY versus 2.6% in April while domestic oriented IP growth slowed to 6.4% YoY versus 9.5%.
尽管5月份矿业增长有所波动（同比下降6.9%，而4月份为增长10%），但制造业（4.6% VS 4.9%）和电力（4.2% VS 7.8%）产出仍然强劲，尽管同比有所放缓。根据方向，出口导向的IP增长改善至3.7%同比增长，而4月份为2.6%，国内导向的IP增长放缓至6.4%同比增长，而4月份为9.5%。
OCBC reiterated that its GDP tracking estimates show higher GDP growth of 4.9% YoY in 2Q24 versus 4.2% in 1Q24. The Bank said that this alludes to not only a stronger industrial production growth (average growth of 4.2% YoY in April and May 2024 versus 3.3% in 1Q24) but also better export growth, wholesale and retail trade growth, palm production as well as higher motor vehicle sales.
华侨银行重申其GDP跟踪估算显示，2024年第二季度GDP增长率较去年同期上升至4.9%，而1Q24为4.2%。该银行表示，这不仅表明了较强的工业生产增长（2024年4月和5月平均增长率为4.2%，而1Q24为3.3%），还表明了更好的出口增长、批发和零售贸易增长、棕榈油产量以及更高的汽车销售。
