June Producer Inflation Exceeds Forecasts, Restrains Investor Euphoria Following Consumer Price Relief
June Producer Inflation Exceeds Forecasts, Restrains Investor Euphoria Following Consumer Price Relief
The Producer Price Index released Friday revealed a higher-than-expected increase in June, surprising investors who had grown confident about interest rate cuts following the sharper-than-anticipated drop in the monthly Consumer Price Index inflation gauge released a day earlier.
週五公佈的生產者物價指數顯示，6月份的漲幅高於預期，這讓投資者感到驚訝，在前一天公佈的月度消費者物價指數通脹指標下降幅度大於預期之後，他們對降息越來越有信心。
On an annual basis compared to June 2023, the overall producer basket rose by 2.6%, reaching its highest point since March 2023.
與2023年6月相比，整個生產者籃子每年增長2.6％，達到2023年3月以來的最高點。
June PPI Report: Key Highlights
6月生產者物價指數報告：主要亮點
- In June, the headline PPI for final demand rose by 0.2% month-over-month, rebounding sharply from the upwardly revised flat reading in May and surpassing economists' expectations – as tracked by TradingEconomics – of a 0.1% increase.
- The June rise in the index for final demand is attributed to a 0.6% monthly increase in prices for final demand services, while the index for final demand goods decreased by 0.5%.
- The 2.6% annual surge in the headline number represented a 0.2 percentage point increase from the upwardly revised May print, and topped estimates of 2.3%.
- The core PPI – which tracks prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services – advanced at a 0.4% monthly pace, advancing from May's upwardly revised 0.3% growth and surpassing estimates of 0.2%.
- On an annual basis, the core PPI climbed by 3.1%, up from the previous 2.3% and marking the highest rate of increase since April 2023.
- 6月，最終需求的總體生產者物價指數同比增長0.2％，從5月份向上修正的持平數據大幅反彈，超過了經濟學家對增長0.1％的預期（根據TradingEconomics的跟蹤）。
- 6月份最終需求指數的上漲歸因於最終需求服務價格每月上漲0.6％，而最終需求商品指數下降了0.5％。
- 總體數據每年增長2.6％，比5月份向上修訂的數字增長了0.2個百分點，超過了預期的2.3％。
- 核心生產者物價指數——追蹤減去食品、能源和貿易服務的最終需求價格——以0.4％的月度增長率上漲，高於5月份向上修正的0.3％的增長率，超過了0.2％的預期。
- 按年計算，核心生產者物價指數從之前的2.3％上升3.1％，創下2023年4月以來的最高增幅。
Market Reactions
市場反應
Prior to the PPI report, traders had assigned a nearly 95% chance on a September rate cut, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
芝加哥商品交易所集團的FedWatch工具顯示，在PPI報告發布之前，交易員認爲9月份降息的機會接近95％。
The hotter-than-expected reading may now temper these heightened expectations, though it is unlikely to derail them altogether given the Federal Reserve's stronger emphasis on consumer price trends.
現在，高於預期的數據可能會緩和這些更高的預期，儘管鑑於聯儲局更加重視消費者價格趨勢，這不太可能使預期完全脫軌。
Futures on major U.S. equity averages traded flat in Friday's premarket trading. Treasury yields inched slightly higher across the board and the dollar recouped early session losses against peers.
在週五的盤前交易中，美國主要股票平均指數的期貨持平。美國國債收益率全面小幅上漲，美元收復了早盤兌同業的跌幅。
On Thursday, tech stocks sold off despite a lower-than-expected CPI report, with the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) tumbling 2.2%. Small caps rallied instead, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) roaring 3.6%, achieving the highest level since January 2022.
週四，儘管消費者價格指數報告低於預期，但科技股仍遭拋售，景順QQQ信託（納斯達克股票代碼：QQQ）下跌2.2％。相反，小盤股上漲，iShares Russell 2000 ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：IWM）上漲了3.6％，達到了2022年1月以來的最高水平。
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照片來自 Shutterstock。