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Is Graco (NYSE:GGG) A Risky Investment?

Is Graco (NYSE:GGG) A Risky Investment?

固瑞克(纽交所:GGG)是否是一项高风险投资?
Simply Wall St ·  07/12 13:39

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Graco Inc. (NYSE:GGG) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

伯克希尔·哈撒韦(Charlie Munger)所支持的外部基金经理李录毫不掩饰他的想法:最大的投资风险不是价格波动,而是是否蒙受永久性资本损失。因此,在考虑任何一只股票的风险时,考虑到债务是明智的,因为过多的债务可能会沉没一家公司。正如许多其他公司一样,纽约证券交易所股票代码为GGG的Graco Inc.(下称“Graco”)也利用了债务。但真正的问题是,这些债务是否使公司变得有风险。

When Is Debt A Problem?

什么时候负债才是一个问题?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

一般来说,只有当公司无法轻松偿还债务时,债务才会成为真正的问题,无论是通过筹集资本还是利用自己的现金流。如果情况变得非常糟糕,债权人可以控制企业。然而,更普遍(但仍然很昂贵)的情况是,公司必须以廉价的股价稀释股东,以控制债务。当然,许多公司使用债务来资助成长,并没有产生负面后果。在检查债务水平时,我们首先考虑现金和债务水平。

What Is Graco's Debt?

Graco的债务是多少?

As you can see below, Graco had US$29.7m of debt at March 2024, down from US$116.9m a year prior. But on the other hand it also has US$622.7m in cash, leading to a US$593.0m net cash position.

正如下图所示,截至2024年3月,Graco的债务为2970万美元,较去年同期的11690万美元减少。但另一方面,其现金为62270万美元,导致净现金头寸为5930万美元。

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NYSE:GGG Debt to Equity History July 12th 2024
纽约证交所股票代码GGG的债务/权益历史记录截至2024年7月12日

How Strong Is Graco's Balance Sheet?

我们可以从最新的资产负债表中看到,截至1年内到期的负债达到了35170万美元,1年之后到期的负债达到了9950万美元。另一方面,其现金为62270万美元,应收账款为32190万美元。因此,其流动资产比总负债多49340万美元。

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Graco had liabilities of US$351.7m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$99.5m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$622.7m and US$321.9m worth of receivables due within a year. So it actually has US$493.4m more liquid assets than total liabilities.

这种短期流动性表明,Graco可能很容易偿还其债务,因为其资产负债表远未超负荷。简而言之,Graco具有比债务更多的现金,可以安全地管理债务。

This short term liquidity is a sign that Graco could probably pay off its debt with ease, as its balance sheet is far from stretched. Simply put, the fact that Graco has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.

但另一方面,Graco在过去一年中的EBIt下降了3.2%。如果收益继续以这种速度下降,公司可能难以管理其债务负担。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表上了解到公司的债务情况最多。但最终企业未来的盈利能力将决定Graco能否随时间加强其资产负债表。因此,如果您想了解专业人士的想法,可能会发现分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。

But the other side of the story is that Graco saw its EBIT decline by 3.2% over the last year. If earnings continue to decline at that rate the company may have increasing difficulty managing its debt load. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Graco can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

最后,尽管税务人员可能崇拜会计盈利,但放贷人只接受冰冷的现金。Graco可能在资产负债表上有净现金,但查看企业将其利息和税前利润(EBIT)转化为自由现金流的情况非常有趣,因为这将影响其管理债务的需要和能力。在过去的三年中,Graco产生了稳健的自由现金流,相当于其EBIt的57%左右,这是我们所期望的。这种冰冷的现金意味着它可以在想要时减少其债务。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. Graco may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. During the last three years, Graco produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 57% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

虽然调查一家公司的债务总是明智的,但在这种情况下,Graco拥有5930万美元的净现金和一份看起来不错的资产负债表。因此,我们对Graco的债务使用不感到担忧。如果我们发现Graco的内部人士最近购买了股票,我们将受到激励,进一步研究该股票。如果您也想了解更多信息,可以免费阅读我们的内部交易报告。

Summing Up

总之

While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Graco has US$593.0m in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. So we are not troubled with Graco's debt use. We'd be motivated to research the stock further if we found out that Graco insiders have bought shares recently. If you would too, then you're in luck, since today we're sharing our list of reported insider transactions for free.

请使用您的moomoo账户登录查看该功能。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

说到底,有时更容易关注那些甚至不需要债务的公司。读者可以免费查看零净债务增长股票列表,立即获得。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

对本文有反馈? 对内容感到担忧? 请直接与我们联系。 或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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