We Think Suzhou HYC TechnologyLtd (SHSE:688001) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think Suzhou HYC TechnologyLtd (SHSE:688001) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Suzhou HYC Technology Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:688001) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过:“波动性与风险远非同义词”。 当我们考虑一家公司有多大的风险时,我们总是喜欢看看它的债务使用情况,因为债务负载过重可能导致破产。 我们注意到,华兴源创科技股份有限公司(SHSE:688001)确实有债务负担。 但股东们是否应该担心它的债务使用情况?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
债务带来了什么风险?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
通常情况下,只有当企业无法通过筹集资金或利用自身现金流来轻松偿还债务时,债务才会成为真正的问题。资本主义的必然过程是“创造性破坏”,银行家无情地清算了失败企业。虽然这种情况并不常见,但我们经常看到负债企业因放贷人迫使其以低价募集资本而永久稀释股东权益。话虽如此,最常见的情况是公司合理地管理其负债,使公司受益。在考虑公司的债务水平时,第一步是将其现金和债务放在一起考虑。
What Is Suzhou HYC TechnologyLtd's Debt?
华兴源创科技股份有限公司的债务是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 Suzhou HYC TechnologyLtd had debt of CN¥866.4m, up from CN¥750.9m in one year. However, it also had CN¥477.8m in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥388.7m.
下面的图片可以点击以获取更详细的信息,显示 2024 年 3 月,华兴源创科技股份有限公司的债务为 CN¥ 86640万,较一年前的 CN¥ 75090万有所增加。然而,它也拥有 CN¥ 47780万的现金,所以其净负债为 CN¥ 38870万。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240713/0-05915107bc75f6f11b6dae5ed0b25d15-0-6daf77a6763be66d983d44f51596e917.png/big)
A Look At Suzhou HYC TechnologyLtd's Liabilities
看看华兴源创科技股份有限公司的负债
According to the last reported balance sheet, Suzhou HYC TechnologyLtd had liabilities of CN¥758.0m due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥867.2m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥477.8m in cash and CN¥1.25b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it can boast CN¥104.7m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
根据最后一份报告的资产负债表,华兴源创科技股份有限公司有 CN¥ 75800万的短期负债和 CN¥ 86720万的长期负债。抵消的是,它拥有 CN¥ 47780万的现金和 CN¥ 12.5亿的应收账款,这些应收款项在 12 个月内到期。 因此,它可以夸耀比总负债多 CN¥ 10470万的流动资产。
Having regard to Suzhou HYC TechnologyLtd's size, it seems that its liquid assets are well balanced with its total liabilities. So it's very unlikely that the CN¥10.4b company is short on cash, but still worth keeping an eye on the balance sheet.
考虑到华兴源创科技股份有限公司的规模,其流动资产与总负债相当均衡。 因此,这家市值 104 亿元人民币的公司很不可能因现金不足而短缺,但仍有必要关注资产负债表。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
为了衡量公司相对于其收益的债务情况,我们计算其净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)和其利息支出除以利息前收益(EBIT)的比例(其利息覆盖率)。这种方法的优点是,我们既考虑了债务的绝对量(净负债与 EBITDA),又考虑到了与该债务相关的实际利息支出(其利息覆盖率)。
Suzhou HYC TechnologyLtd's net debt to EBITDA ratio of about 1.9 suggests only moderate use of debt. And its strong interest cover of 1k times, makes us even more comfortable. Importantly, Suzhou HYC TechnologyLtd's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 58% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Suzhou HYC TechnologyLtd's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
华兴源创科技股份有限公司的净债务/ EBITDA 比率约为 1.9,表明仅适度使用债务。其强大的利息覆盖率为 0.1万倍,使我们更加放心。重要的是,华兴源创科技股份有限公司的 EBIT 在过去十二个月中惊人地下降了 58%。如果这种下降继续下去,则偿还债务将比在素食主义大会上销售鹅肝更难。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是明显的起点。但最终,决定华兴源创科技股份有限公司能否保持健康的资产负债表的是未来的收益,而不是任何其他东西。 因此,如果您想了解专业人士的想法,您可能会发现这篇有关分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Suzhou HYC TechnologyLtd burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
但我们的最后考虑也很重要,因为一家公司无法用纸上利润偿还债务;它需要冷酷的现金。所以我们总是检查那种利润能够转化成自由现金流的多少。在过去的三年中,华兴源创科技股份有限公司烧掉了大量的现金。虽然这可能是为了增长而产生的支出,但它确实使债务更加有风险。
Our View
我们的观点
Neither Suzhou HYC TechnologyLtd's ability to grow its EBIT nor its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But its interest cover tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Suzhou HYC TechnologyLtd is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Suzhou HYC TechnologyLtd .
华兴源创科技股份有限公司的 EBIt 增长能力以及其 EBIt 的转化为自由现金流的能力都没有让我们对其承担更多债务抱有信心。但是其利息覆盖率却讲述了一个非常不同的故事,并表明一些韧性。当我们综合考虑所有已讨论的因素时,我们认为华兴源创科技股份有限公司在债务使用方面存在一定风险。尽管这些债务可以提高回报,但我们认为该公司现在已经具有足够的杠杆,因此应集中关注资产负债表。 但不是所有的投资风险都驻留在资产负债表上-远非如此。为此,您应该了解我们发现的关于华兴源创科技股份有限公司的两个警告标志 。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
说到底,有时候更容易集中精力关注根本不需要债务的公司。读者可以免费访问零净债务增长股票列表。
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。