Outlook for the domestic stock market: Short-term overheating is resolved, but exchange rate fluctuations are factors that large cap trading should be cautious of.

Fisco Japan · Jul 13 01:42

■史上初めて42000円に乗せた後に急落

今週の日経平均は週間で278.31円高(＋0.68％)の41190.68円と上昇。引き続き外国人投資家と思われるTOPIXコア30銘柄など大型株を中心とした買いが入ったことで、日経平均、TOPIXは連日で史上最高値更新となった。値がさ半導体株や精密機器などハイテク株も買われたほか、先物市場では買い戻す動きなども入り、11日に日経平均は史上初の42000円台まで上げ幅を広げた。

ただ、11日の米6月消費者物価指数（CPI）が市場予想を大幅に下振れたタイミングで円高ドル安が加速。一時4円超も円高が進行したことで政府・日本銀行による円買い介入実施との見方も浮上し、週末の東京市場はハイテク株中心に急落。1033.34円安と今年最大の下落幅となり、週末に算出された7月限オプション特別清算指数（SQ値）は41531.26円を下回った。

なお、7月第1週の投資主体別売買動向によると、外国人投資家は現物を1924億円買い越したほか、TOPIX先物を2483億円買い越し、225先物は4223億円買い越したことから、合計8630億円の買い越しとなった。一方、個人投資家は現物を5104億円売り越したほか、信託は現物を522億円と買い越した。

■25日MAとの乖離率は＋3.6％まで低下

12日の米国株式市場は上昇。ダウ平均は前日比247.15ドル高（＋0.62％）の40000.90ドル、ナスダックは115.04ポイント高（＋0.63％）の18398.45、S&P500は30.81ポイント高（＋0.55％）の5615.35で取引を終了。大証ナイト・セッションの日経225先物は、通常取引終値20円高の41190円で取引を終えた。

日経平均は週末の急落によって、11日の取引時間ベースで7％超まで拡大していた25日移動平均線との上方乖離率が3.6％まで縮小。短期的な上昇に対する過熱感は解消されつつある。足元の日経平均の上昇は、東京エレクトロン＜8035＞やアドバンテスト＜6857＞など半導体株や、アップル関連銘柄のTDK＜6762＞など指数に影響力がある銘柄の影響が大きかったため、週末のアンワインドによって日経平均は1000円超の急落となった。

一方、日経平均急落のなかでも、プライム市場全体の6割の銘柄が上昇するなど日本株の底堅さは確認できたことはポジティブな材料だ。また、金利低下を背景に不動産株が買われたほか、円高進行を受けてニトリホールディングス＜9843＞、ニチレイ＜2871＞など円高メリット銘柄が買われるなど活発な循環物色が確認できたことから、投資家マインドはさほど悪化していないと考える。短期的な過熱感が解消されたことで、仕切り直しを迎えたと前向きに捉えることもできよう。

■慌ただしい為替市場は様子見姿勢強まる材料に

為替市場は非常に慌ただしい。11日発表の米CPIは、前月比で上昇するとの市場予想に反して、0.1％低下。米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）が9月にも利下げを開始するとの見方が強まったことから、米10年国債利回りは4.16％まで低下した。ドル・インデックスは104.6から103.8まで低下するなどドルは主要通貨に対して売り優勢となった。

一方、米CPI発表後、円は主要通貨に対して全面高となったことから、市場では政府・日銀が円買い介入を行ったとの見方が強まっている。介入を実施したとなれば、既に4月26日―5月29日に9兆7885億円を介入に費やしていることから、米財務省が為替報告書で定める操作国認定基準のひとつの項目である「介入額がGDPの2％を超える場合」に、総額では並んだ、もしくは超えた可能性がある（名目GDP（591兆円）の2％の約12兆円）。もっとも、操作国認定基準では「過去12カ月間で8カ月以上外貨買い介入を実施」している点も存在することから、数回、円買い介入を実施しただけでは基準に該当しないという整理は十分可能だ。

一方、12日の朝方には「日銀が対ユーロでレートチェックを実施」と伝わったことで、円は瞬間的に対ユーロで2円ほど円高ユーロ安が進む場面が見られた。1999年から2003年にかけて、政府・日銀が円売りユーロ買いの介入は実施したことはあるが、円買いユーロ売りの介入実績はない。円買いユーロ売り介入実施となれば歴史的な事象となる。つまり、為替市場は対ドル、対ユーロともに非常に神経質な地合いを迎えている。為替市場の乱高下は、海外売上高比率が高い銘柄に大きな影響を与えることから、自動車株を筆頭に輸出関連銘柄の多くは積極的な売買が手控えられそうだ。

■18日にECB理事会

来週は、国内では、18日に6月貿易収支、19日に6月CPIなどが予定されている。

海外では、15日に中・6月新築住宅販売価格、4-6月国内総生産（GDP）、6月鉱工業生産、小売売上高、欧・5月ユーロ圏鉱工業生産指数、米・7月NY連銀製造業景気指数、16日に独欧・7月ZEW景況感指数、5月ユーロ圏貿易収支、米・6月小売売上高、輸出物価指数、17日にNZ・4-6月CPI、英・6月CPI、小売物価指数、生産者物価指数、米・6月住宅着工件数、鉱工業生産指数、週次原油在庫、18日に南ア・南アフリカ準備銀行(中央銀行)が政策金利発表、豪・6月失業率、英・6月失業率、欧・欧州中央銀行(ECB)が政策金利発表、米・週次新規失業保険申請件数、7月フィラデルフィア連銀景況指数、19日に英・6月小売売上高などが予定されている。

■Plummeting after putting on 42,000 yen for the first time in history

This week's Nikkei average rose 278.31 yen (+ 0.68%) to 41190.68 yen per week. Since purchases centered on large stocks such as TOPIX core 30 stocks, which are thought to be foreign investors, continued to come in, the Nikkei Average and TOPIX hit record highs every day. High-tech stocks such as high-value semiconductor stocks and precision instruments were also bought, and movements to buy back were also involved in the futures market, and the Nikkei Average increased to the 42,000 yen range for the first time in history on the 11th.

However, the appreciation of the yen and the depreciation of the dollar accelerated when the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the 11th drastically lowered market expectations. As the appreciation of the yen progressed by over 4 yen at one point, the view that the government and the Bank of Japan implemented yen buying intervention also surfaced, and the Tokyo market plummeted mainly on high-tech stocks over the weekend. It was the biggest decline this year with a depreciation of 1033.34 yen, and the July Special Liquidation Index (SQ value) calculated over the weekend fell below 41531.26 yen.

Note, according to trading trends by investor in the 1st week of July, foreign investors overbought TOPIX futures by 192.4 billion yen, overbought TOPIX futures by 248.3 billion yen, and 225 futures were overbought by 422.3 billion yen, resulting in a total overpurchase of 863 billion yen. Meanwhile, individual investors oversold the actual item by 510.4 billion yen, and trusts overbought the actual item by 52.2 billion yen.

■The divergence rate with the 25th MA dropped to +3.6%

The US stock market rose on the 12th. The Dow average closed at 40000.90 dollars, which was 247.15 dollars higher (+ 0.62%) than the previous day, the NASDAQ was 18398.45, 115.04 points higher (+ 0.63%), and the S&P 500 closed at 5615.35, which was 30.81 points higher (+ 0.55%). Nikkei 225 futures in the Taisen Night Session closed at 41190 yen, 20 yen higher than the regular closing price.

The upward divergence rate of the Nikkei Average from the 25th moving average, which had expanded to over 7% based on trading hours on the 11th, shrunk to 3.6% due to a sharp fall over the weekend. The sense of overheating over the short-term rise is being resolved. The recent rise in the Nikkei Average was greatly influenced by semiconductor stocks such as Tokyo Electron ＜8035＞ and Advantest ＜6857＞, and stocks that influence the index, such as TDK ＜6762＞, which is an Apple-related brand, so the Nikkei Average plummeted by over 1000 yen due to weekend unwind.

Meanwhile, the fact that we were able to confirm the solidity of Japanese stocks, such as 60% of stocks in the Prime market as a whole rising even amidst the sharp decline in the Nikkei Average, is positive material. Also, in addition to real estate stocks being bought against the backdrop of falling interest rates, active cyclical searching was confirmed, such as stocks merit yen appreciation such as NITORI Holdings ＜9843＞ and Nichirei ＜2871＞ being bought in response to the appreciation of the yen, so I don't think investor sentiment has deteriorated that much. Since the short-term sense of overheating has been resolved, it can also be positively perceived that the partition has been rearranged.

■The hectic exchange market is a material for strengthening wait-and-see attitudes

The exchange market is extremely hectic. The US CPI announced on the 11th fell 0.1%, contrary to market expectations that it would rise from the previous month. Since the view that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates in September has strengthened, the yield on US 10-year government bonds has declined to 4.16%. The dollar index fell from 104.6 to 103.8, and the dollar had a selling advantage against major currencies.

Meanwhile, since the US CPI was announced, the yen became fully appreciated against major currencies, so there is a growing view in the market that the government and the Bank of Japan intervened to buy yen. If intervention were to be implemented, since 9 trillion788.5 billion yen was already spent on intervention from 4/26 to 5/29, there is a possibility that the total amount lined up or exceeded “when the intervention amount exceeds 2% of GDP,” which is one item of the operating country certification standards determined by the US Treasury Department in exchange reports (about 12 trillion yen of 2% of nominal GDP (591 trillion yen)). However, since there is also a point where “foreign currency purchase intervention has been carried out for 8 months or more in the past 12 months” in the operating country certification standards, it is quite possible to sort out that simply implementing yen purchase interventions a few times does not fall under the standard.

Meanwhile, on the morning of the 12th, it was reported that “the Bank of Japan will carry out a rate check against the euro,” and there was a scene where the yen instantaneously appreciated by about 2 yen against the euro and the depreciation of the euro progressed. From 1999 to 2003, the government and the Bank of Japan intervened by selling yen and buying euros, but there is no record of intervention in yen buying and selling euros. It would be a historic event if yen buying and euro sales intervention were implemented. In other words, the exchange market is in an extremely nervous position against both the dollar and the euro. Volatility in the exchange market has a big impact on stocks with a high overseas sales ratio, so it seems that aggressive trading of most export-related stocks, led by automobile stocks, will be refrained.

■ECB Board Meeting on the 18th

Next week, domestically, the June trade balance is scheduled for the 18th, and the June CPI etc. are scheduled for the 19th.

Overseas, China-June new housing sales prices on the 15th, April-6 gross domestic product (GDP), June industrial production, retail sales, Europe/5 Eurozone industrial production index, US-July NY Federal Bank manufacturing business climate index, Germany and July ZEW business confidence index on the 16th, May Eurozone trade balance, US-6 retail sales, export price index, NZ/4/6 CPI on the 17th, UK/6 CPI, retail price index, producer price index, number of US and June housing starts, industrial production index, weekly industrial production index Next crude oil Inventory, South Africa Reserve Bank (central bank) will announce policy interest rates on the 18th, Australia/6 unemployment rate, UK/6 unemployment rate, Europe/European Central Bank (ECB) will announce policy interest rates, number of new US/weekly unemployment insurance claims, July Philadelphia Federal Bank business condition index, and Anglo/6 retail sales on the 19th.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

国内株式市場見通し：短期的な過熱感は解消も、為替の乱高下は大型株の売買手控え要因に

Outlook for the domestic stock market: Short-term overheating is resolved, but exchange rate fluctuations are factors that large cap trading should be cautious of.

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