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Recent 3.5% Pullback Isn't Enough to Hurt Long-term Guangshen Railway (HKG:525) Shareholders, They're Still up 63% Over 3 Years

最近の3.5%の下落は長期的な広深鉄路(HKG:525)の株主に影響を与える程ではなく、3年間でまだ63%上昇しています。

Simply Wall St ·  07/14 20:55

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. For example, the Guangshen Railway Company Limited (HKG:525) share price is up 57% in the last three years, clearly besting the market decline of around 25% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 8.5%, including dividends.

Although Guangshen Railway has shed HK$567m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During three years of share price growth, Guangshen Railway moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd expect the share price to be up.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

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SEHK:525 Earnings Per Share Growth July 15th 2024

It is of course excellent to see how Guangshen Railway has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Guangshen Railway's TSR for the last 3 years was 63%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Guangshen Railway shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 8.5% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 1.2% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Guangshen Railway that you should be aware of before investing here.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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