GTJA released a research report stating that several domestic semiconductor design companies have released profit growth forecasts. The global semiconductor industry has rebounded, and high growth in the Chinese market continues. The recovery in storage is significantly stronger than that of logic products.
According to the news from Zhìtōng Cáijīng, GTJA released a research report stating that several domestic semiconductor design companies have released profit growth forecasts. The global semiconductor industry has rebounded, and high growth in the Chinese market continues. The recovery in storage is significantly stronger than that of logic products. Benefiting from the AI and AI edge replacement cycle, downstream rates for storage and AI have recovered first, and the recovery pace of smartphones, PCs, AIoT, and general-purpose servers continues, with the expectation that it will continue to rise in Q3. Considering that Q3 is the peak season for consumer electronics, bullish about the performance of downstream companies in the Apple industry chain, digital SoC companies, downstream storage companies, and downstream server companies.
GTJA's main opinions include:
The global semiconductor industry has rebounded, and high growth in the Chinese market continues. The recovery in storage is significantly stronger than that of logic products. The Americas and China have stronger recovery momentum than the overall market. According to SIA, global semiconductor industry sales in May 2024 amounted to 49.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 19.3% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month. The year-on-year growth rates of the Americas (43.6%), China (24.2%), and other Asia-Pacific regions (13.8%) have increased, while Japan (-5.8%) and Europe (-9.6%) have declined. In terms of sectors, logic and storage chips lead the recovery. The AI wave and storage recovery drive the industry's continued growth. According to WSTS, in 2024, logic and storage will drive annual growth, with logic expected to grow by 10.7% and storage by 76.8%. In 2025, the scale of storage and logic is expected to increase to more than 200 billion US dollars, with storage expected to grow by more than 25% compared to 2024, and logic by 10%.
The recovery momentum of downstream storage and AI is stronger, while that of traditional consumer electronics is slower. It is expected that the Q3 consumer electronics peak season will drive demand upward in all directions, including smartphones, PCs, general-purpose servers, etc.
(1) Smartphone: According to Canalys, global smartphone shipments in Q1 2024 were 0.2962 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%, which was the first double-digit growth in 10 quarters.
(2) PC: According to Counterpoint, global PC shipments in Q1 2024 were 57.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Driven by AI PCs and new replacement cycles, it is expected that shipments will increase on a month-on-month basis in the next few quarters of 2024, and the annual growth is expected to be 3%.
(3) Server: According to TrendForce, driven by the demand for storage servers led by AI, the momentum of Q2 shipments will continue to Q3, and it is estimated that the growth in Q3 will be 4%-5%.
(4) Storage: Storage prices continue to improve, and AI drives related segmented demand. According to TrendForce, the recovery in demand for general-purpose servers and the further increase in the proportion of DRAM supplier HBM production will continue the trend of storage price increases, and the average price of DRAM in Q3 will continue to rise. The price of HBM will rise by 8% to 13%, and that of general-purpose DRAM will rise by 5% to 10%, slightly shrinking compared to the second quarter.
Several domestic semiconductor design companies, including GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc. in storage, Montage Technology in servers, and Rockchip Electronics and GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc. in digital SoC, announced that their performances exceeded expectations. As of the evening of July 12, nine semiconductor chip design companies, including GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc. and Montage Technology, have announced that their performance for the first half of 2024 is expected to exceed expectations. The company's main focus is on storage, SoC, AIoT, etc. GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc.'s net income in the first half of 2024 is expected to increase by approximately 54.2%, mainly due to the recovery of demand in the consumer and Internet communication markets in the first half of the year, which drove the company's storage product sales. Montage Technology's revenue in Q2 2024 was 0.928 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82.6%. Among them, the sales revenue of interconnect chips was 0.833 billion yuan, reaching a single-season high. The main reason was the increase in DDR5 penetration rate and the increase in shipments of the company's AI products. Considering that Q3 is the peak season for consumer electronics, bullish about the performance of downstream companies in the Apple industry chain, digital SoC companies, downstream storage companies, and downstream server companies.
Risk warning: the recovery of downstream demand is lower than expected; product progress is lower than expected.