Malaysia 2H24 Outlook And Lookouts Of Sustaining Positive Economic Momentum
Malaysia 2H24 Outlook And Lookouts Of Sustaining Positive Economic Momentum
Malaysia's real GDP growth picked up in 1Q 2024, which had prompted Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) to raise the 2024E real GDP growth forecast to +4.7% (from +4.4%) and 2025E to +5.1% (from +5.0%).
2024年第一季度，马来西亚实际国内生产总值增长加快，此举促使马来亚银行投资银行（Maybank IB）将2024年实际国内生产总值增长预测上调至+4.7%（从+4.4%），2025年预测值上调至+5.1%（从+5.0%） 。
Maybank IB said today, over at equities, core earnings of their research universe rose +20.1% YoY in 1Q 2024 which had led to upliftment in our forecasts; Maybank IB now estimates a higher +15.5% core earnings growth for their universe in 2024E (previously +13.1%), while for 2025E, they now estimate +10.7% growth (previously +9.9%).
Maybank Ib今日表示，其研究领域的核心盈利在 2024 年第一季度同比增长了 20.1%。这导致我们的预测有所提升。Maybank Ib现在预计，其研究领域在 2024 年将实现更高的 15.5% 核心盈利增长（之前是 13.1%），而在 2025 年，他们预计增长率将为 10.7%（之前是 9.9%） 。
Malaysia's economic growth will be underpinned by the trifecta of positives:
马来西亚的经济增长将受到三个积极因素的支持：
1) investment upcycle in FDI and DDI reflecting the on-going realisation of the sustained momentum in robust approved investment since 2021;
1）在外商直接投资和国内直接投资方面，投资周期上升，反映了自 2021年以来批准的强劲投资动能的持久实现；
2) external demand recovery especially in electronics/tech and tourism, contributing to firmer services sector growth, pick up in manufacturing sector growth as well as rebound in exports of goods and services; and
2）外部需求的复苏，尤其是在电子/科技和旅游业方面，有助于服务业增长走强，制造业增长回暖，货物和服务出口增长加速；以及
3) resilient consumer spending on the back of the favourable job market conditions as per the low and stable unemployment rate as well as income growth and support measures.
3）在有利的就业市场条件下消费者支出保持强势，这得益于低而稳定的失业率、收入增长和支持措施。
Maybank IB said, positively, the Ringgit has stabilised vs. USD following intervention by Bank Negara and coordinated communications and measures by Bank Negara and Ministry of Finance.
Maybank Ib表示，乐观的是，马币对美元的汇率已经在马来亚银行的干预以及马来亚银行和财政部的协调沟通和措施后稳定。
Maybank IB forecasts the Ringgit ending this year vs. USD at 4.60.
Maybank Ib预计马币对美元汇率将以4.60收盘今年。
Ringgit-positive factors include improving domestic economic growth prospect, as well as the expectation of stable Overnight Policy Rate of 3.00% vs. market and Maybank IB's expectations of 2-3 cuts in the US federal funds rate between Sep 2024 and Dec 2024.
令人看好马币的因素包括国内经济增长前景的改善，以及对 3.00% 的隔夜政策利率的预期稳定（相对于市场和 Maybank Ib 预计在 2024年9月和12月之间的美联储资金利率将有 2-3 次下调）。
For equities, the positive signs are:
对于股票，积极信号包括：
1) progress in economic restructuring and fiscal reforms;
1）经济结构调整和财政改革的进展；
2) record high approved FDI/DDIs; and
2）创纪录的批准外商直接投资/国内直接投资；以及
3) corporate earnings growth delivery has led to the KLCI's outperformance and re-rating in 2024 YTD.
3）企业盈利增长的交付，导致马股在2024年的业绩表现优异和被评级的提升。
Maybank IB maintains their YE KLCI target of 1,680, with tailwinds including:
Maybank Ib维持他们对吉隆坡综合指数的年底目标为1,680点，并受到三大利好因素的推动：
1) US interest rate cuts;
1）美国的利率下调；
2) details of the JSSEZ which will be catalytic in bringing in further FDIs and infra developments; and
2）吉隆坡分区战略经济特区的细节，这将有助于带来更多的外商直接投资和基础设施建设；以及
3) the outlook of a firmer Ringgit.
3）看盘钞票更挺实的预期。
For investment strategy, Maybank IB recommends a portfolio of selective investment-related, and domestic sectors, balanced with yield stocks.
对于投资策略，Maybank Ib建议采用有选择性的投资相关和国内行业，与收益股平衡。
Key wildcards to Malaysia's macro-outlook are the upside risk to domestic inflation and the downside risk of external geopolitics.
影响马来西亚宏观经济前景的主要不确定因素是国内通胀风险的上行和外部地缘政治风险的下行。
Key risks for equities are US elections (in Nov 2024) and a "Trump 2.0" outcome, "higher-for-longer" US interest rate, and Russia-Ukraine & Middle East instability escalating.
股票的主要风险包括 2024年11月美国大选和 "特朗普 2.0" 的结果，"更高的美国利率"，以及俄罗斯-乌克兰和中东不稳定局势升级。