The probability of Trump's victory is increasing, which favors risk assets such as bitcoin. Especially when the latest Republican campaign agenda mentioned that if Trump comes to power, the crackdown on cryptos will end, greatly boosting the confidence of the cryptos market.
"Trump trade" is popular.
After Trump was attacked on the weekend, a series of Trump-related assets such as U.S. bond yields, bitcoin, and U.S. prison stocks soared thanks to his survival. The American people's support for Trump has skyrocketed.
Among them, Bitcoin rose for two consecutive days, rising 5.7% on Monday, reaching a two-week high of $63,768 at one point.
Why did Bitcoin also rise?
Martin Leinweber, director of digital asset research and strategy at MarketVector, pointed out that Trump's rising election support has favored risky assets such as Bitcoin. This is also referred to as the "Trump trade" by traders.
Trump's support for cryptocurrencies is a key influencing factor in this wave of Bitcoin rises. Especially since the U.S. Republican Party released the "Republican Agenda for Making America Great Again in 2024" on Monday, which states that:
Republicans will end the democratic crackdown on cryptocurrencies and defend the right to mine Bitcoin. Making sure that all Americans have the right to safeguard their digital assets and trade them freely without surveillance and control.
This means that if Trump takes office, he will choose to embrace cryptocurrencies. This is good news for cryptocurrencies that have been heavily regulated by the Biden administration in recent years.
If Trump is elected, the U.S. attitude toward cryptocurrencies will make a 180-degree turn.
The current Biden administration has been very strict in regulating the cryptocurrency industry, even in a state of crackdown.
In the past two years, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has successively sued and fined more than $5 billion against cryptocurrency trading platforms such as FTX, Binance and Coindesk.
In addition, the SEC publicly opposes the U.S. Congress's enactment of corresponding regulations for crypto assets, and claims that the vast majority of cryptocurrency token issuers are unregulated and in violation of federal securities laws.
Now, with the increased likelihood of Trump being elected, he is even more popular among the cryptocurrency community who are pro-Trump.
Katie Biber, chief legal officer of cryptocurrency investment firm Paradigm, even said that cryptocurrency's entry into the Republican Party's agenda is a historic breakthrough.
Some analysts pointed out that Trump's move to show favor to the cryptocurrency community is due to his needs in the election. With the approaching of the November U.S. presidential election, Trump may use cryptocurrencies as an important means of winning young voters and financial technology innovation supporters.
Leinweber said that Trump has changed his stance on cryptocurrencies, having criticized them during his previous term and now embraced the industry once again.
According to media reports, in June Trump met with people in the cryptocurrency industry at his Bedminster estate, urging them to keep Bitcoin mining activities in the United States to help the United States dominate the energy sector. Trump's campaign team has also been accepting Bitcoin as campaign donations since May.
Trump's attitude toward cryptocurrencies has even "infected" some Democratic lawmakers. Last month, dozens of Democratic members of the House of Representatives voted for a financial innovation bill. Many believe that this move shows that both the Republican and Democratic parties do not want voters to see them as a party that is against cryptocurrencies.