When close to half the companies in China have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 28x, you may consider Xinhuanet Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603888) as a stock to potentially avoid with its 38.7x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
The earnings growth achieved at Xinhuanet over the last year would be more than acceptable for most companies. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this respectable earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Is There Enough Growth For Xinhuanet?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Xinhuanet would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 11%. The solid recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 19% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing earnings over that time.
Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 36% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.
In light of this, it's alarming that Xinhuanet's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
We've established that Xinhuanet currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 1 warning sign for Xinhuanet that we have uncovered.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Xinhuanet. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com