While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Ningbo Exciton Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300566) share price up 20% in a single quarter. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. In fact, the share price is down 40% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.
The recent uptick of 11% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Ningbo Exciton Technology saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 0.7% per year, over the last three years. This reduction in EPS is slower than the 16% annual reduction in the share price. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Ningbo Exciton Technology has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
A Different Perspective
Ningbo Exciton Technology shareholders are down 18% over twelve months (even including dividends), which isn't far from the market return of -17%. The silver lining is that longer term investors would have made a total return of 7% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data remains strong, and the share price is simply down on sentiment, then this could be an opportunity worth investigating. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Ningbo Exciton Technology that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course Ningbo Exciton Technology may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com