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【特约大V】邓声兴:市场憧憬联储局快降息 惟对港股升势无帮助

[Special Guest] Deng Shengxing: The market anticipates the Fed to cut interest rates soon, but it will not help the rising trend of Hong Kong stocks.

金吾財訊 ·  Jul 17 21:10

The Hang Seng Index closed at 17,739 on Wednesday (17th), up 11 points or 0.1%. The total market turnover was 104.9 billion yuan. The national index fell 0.3% to 6297; the scientific and technological index rose 0.5% to 3640. Blue chip stocks developed independently, Tencent (00700) fell 1.6%; ICBC (01398) fell 0.2%; CCB (00939) fell 0.2%; international oil prices fell for three consecutive days, CNOOC (00883) fell 5.2%; PetroChina (00857) fell 5.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41,198 on Wednesday (17th), up 243 points or 0.59%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 1.39% to 5588 points; the Nasdaq fell 2.77% to 17,996 points; and the Russell 2000 Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese concept stocks, fell 1.1%. In Europe, British stocks rose slightly by 0.28%, while French and German stocks closed at 0.12% and 0.44% respectively. Meta fell 5.7%, and Apple and Amazon fell by 2.5% and 2.6% respectively. Amazon is the worst-performing Dow component. On the other hand, Johnson & Johnson's performance exceeded expectations, and its stock price rose 3.7%; UnitedHealth jumped 4.5%, becoming the largest Dow component to rise. The Asia-Pacific stock market was mixed this morning (18th), with the Nikkei 225 Index now reporting 40,204 points, down 892 points or 2.17%. The South Korean Composite Index now reports 2810 points, down 32 points or 1.14%. The market is looking forward to a rapid interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but it is not helping the Hong Kong stock market.


Market focus: Xiaomi Group-W (01810)

With the promulgation of detailed rules for the implementation of the state's old-for-new policy and the continuous implementation of local new energy subsidy policies, the consumption and purchasing power of citizens has been released to some extent from May to June, driving the new energy vehicle market to strengthen. Data shows that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in June were 0.856 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%. From January to June 2024, cumulative retail sales were 4.111 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 33.1%. From January to June 2024, exports were 0.586 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 21.2%. The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase year-on-year by 13 percentage points, and the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 48.4% in June. In May, Xiaomi Group-W (1810) had delivered 8,646 Xiaomisu7 series electric vehicles, making the cumulative delivery in 2024 reached 15,764 vehicles. In the first quarter of 2024, the group's revenue reached 75.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%; the adjusted net profit reached 6.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.8%, reaching a historical high; among them, Xiaomi's smart phone business also developed well. In the first quarter, the income of Xiaomi's smart phone business increased by 33% year-on-year, and the shipment volume increased by 33.5% year-on-year. The group's mobile phone business steadily grew, IOT, Internet service business maintained growth momentum, and the auto business also began to rise. It is expected that the group will achieve revenue of 86.5 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%.

Target price is $19 and stop loss price is $14.5

(The author is a licensed person of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and does not hold any of the above stocks.)

Author: Dr. Tang Shengxing, Chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Analysts Association.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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