Fed's Goolsbee Confident With Inflation's 'Golden Path,' But Won't Tie Committee Hands On September Fed Cut: Stocks Fall
Fed's Goolsbee Confident With Inflation's 'Golden Path,' But Won't Tie Committee Hands On September Fed Cut: Stocks Fall
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed confidence that the inflation trend is on a "golden path," characterized by a stable decline without triggering a recession. However, he refrained from explicitly stating his intentions regarding possible future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行主席奧斯汀·古爾斯比表示，通脹趨勢處於“黃金路徑”，穩定下降而不觸發經濟衰退。但他避免明確表態有關聯儲局可能未來降息的意圖。
Investors, instead, are getting increasingly convinced of a September rate cut, with odds near 100%, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool.
而投資者日益確信9月份會有降息，CME聯邦基金利率工具的賠率接近100％。
Golden Path, But No Pre-Commitments
黃金之路，但沒有預先承諾
In an interview with Yahoo Finance on Thursday, Goolsbee highlighted, "We've had multiple months in a row of improvement," and noted the inflation surprise at the beginning of the year appeared to be just "a bump on the road."
在週四接受雅虎財經採訪時，古爾斯比強調：“我們已經連續多個月改善了。”他指出，今年年初通脹的意外似乎只是“路上的一個顛簸”。
He stressed that inflation has significantly decreased over the past 12 to 18 months, describing it as one of the fastest declines in U.S. history, achieved without causing a recession. This unprecedented scenario, he said, represented the "golden path."
他強調，通脹在過去12至18個月顯著下降，是美國曆史上最快的下降之一，沒有引發衰退。他說，這種前所未有的情況代表着“黃金之路”。
Goolsbee also highlighted the anticipated declines in housing inflation and improvements in the services sector. He emphasized the consistent month-to-month improvements in various components of inflation are indicative of progress toward the 2% target.
古爾斯比還強調預期的房屋通脹下降和服務業改善。他強調通脹各種元件的持續改善是朝着2％的目標取得進展的標誌。
Regarding labor market conditions, Goolsbee acknowledged some "warning lights" but stated the situation does not currently resemble a recession, rather a cooling back to better balance. He reiterated that the job market hasn't shown signs of traditional overheating.
關於就業市場狀況，古爾斯比承認一些“警告燈”，但表示當前情況並不像經濟衰退，而是回歸更好的平衡狀態。他重申，就業市場沒有顯示出傳統的過熱跡象。
When asked about the potential for a rate cut, Goolsbee expressed his reluctance to make premature commitments, preferring to await more data and the views of other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members.
當被問及降息的可能性時，古爾斯比表達了他不願意過早做出承諾的不情願，更願意等待更多數據和其他聯邦公開市場委員會成員的意見。 “我不喜歡過早地束縛我們的手腳，”他說。他強調靈活性的重要性，表示目前不會承諾降息的具體時間表。
"I don't like tying our hands ahead of time," he said. He emphasized the importance of flexibility, stating he would not commit to a specific timeline for rate cuts at this time.
“我不喜歡過早地束縛我們的手腳，”他說。他強調靈活性的重要性，表示目前不會承諾降息的具體時間表。
Market Reactions: Stocks Decline
市場反應：股票下跌
Both the dollar and Treasury yields remained relatively unchanged during Goolsbee's remarks. The U.S. dollar index maintained its session gains, with the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) up 0.28%. Treasury yields saw only marginal increases on the long end.
在古爾斯比的講話中，美元和國債收益率仍保持相對穩定。美元指數保持會話增長，紐交所英鎊匯率做多基金ETF（NYSE：UUP）上漲0.28％。長期國債收益率僅略有增加。
The U.S. stock market experienced a decline after 10:30 a.m. ET, with all major indices flipping to losses. The Russell 2000 also erased its session gains.
美國股市在美國東部時間上午10:30後經歷了下跌，所有主要指數都翻轉了虧損。羅素2000指數也抹去了其會話增長。
Both the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) were down 0.1%.
SPDR標普500ETF信託基金（NYSE：SPY）和以技術爲主的納斯達克100指數ETF（納斯達克：QQQ）均下跌0.1％。
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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock