President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are, as of now, set to square off in a fierce rematch of the 2020 election. As betting markets show Trump having a substantial advantage over Biden, how would solar stocks far under a second Trump term?
Benzinga's readers weighed in. "Would you buy solar stocks ahead of a Trump/[J.D.] Vance win, given their historical skepticism towards the solar industry and support for fossil fuels?" Benzinga asked. The results show varying opinions among investors.
- 43% of respondents said yes.
- 57% of respondents said no.
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Trump's odds of winning the presidency have risen steadily in 2024, according to betting market Polymarket. Meanwhile, in a move perhaps correlated with the election, solar stocks are down on the year.
Trump repeatedly criticized solar and wind energy during his presidency, according to Newsweek. He also called climate change a "hoax."
The Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE:TAN), which tracks solar energy companies, is down 18.32% in 2024. It is down over 4% since the assassination attempt on Trump on July 13 (betting markets predicted that Trump's odds of winning the election increased substantially following the event).
First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:FSLR), Enphase Energy Inc (NASDAQ:ENPH) and Canadian Solar Inc (NASDAQ:CSIQ) all took major hits in the market session following the assassination attempt. Since then, their performance has varied. Canadian Solar has recovered while Enphase and First Solar have sunk further in the red.
Republicans are seen to be more partial to gas and oil than solar. Both sectors have done well under the Biden administration: The U.S. produced more oil under Biden than at any point under Trump, and Biden has approved billions in incentives for clean energy while in office.
Meanwhile, solar has paradoxically become more popular in states such as Texas (a state that consistently votes red,) which could indicate that solar has become less politicized.
The survey was conducted by Benzinga on July 16 and July 17 and included the responses of a diverse population of adults 18 or older. Opting into the survey was completely voluntary, with no incentives offered to potential respondents. The study reflects results from 112 adults.
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