BofA Downgrades Elevance Health On Medicaid Pressure And Lowered Peer Valuations
BofA Downgrades Elevance Health On Medicaid Pressure And Lowered Peer Valuations
Wednesday, Elevance Health Inc. (NYSE:ELV) reported second-quarter revenues of $43.2 billion, down 0.4% year-over-year, marginally above the consensus of $43.05 billion.
周三，Elevance Health Inc.（纽交所：ELV）报告了第二季度收入为432亿美元，同比下降0.4%，略高于市场预期的430.5亿美元。
The decrease was driven by attrition in Medicaid membership, partially offset by higher premium yields reflecting the medical cost trend.
减少的原因是由于 Medicaid 会员流失，部分抵消了医疗成本趋势的更高保费收益。
In the second quarter, UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH) and Elevance Health reported increasing pressure on Medicaid, creating uncertainty about when Medicaid margins will bottom out and when a potential recovery might occur.
在第二季度，联合健康集团股份有限公司（纽交所：UNH）和 Elevance Health 报告了对 Medicaid 的持续压力，这给何时 Medicaid 边际利润率会触底以及潜在复苏何时出现带来了不确定性。
Centene Inc. (NYSE:CNC), Cigna Corp (NYSE:CI), and Molina Healthcare Inc. (NYSE:MOH) are trading at a 3x lower valuation than Elevance Health. While Elevance Health's diversification and quality justify some premium, this also limits its potential for further gains.
康西哥股份有限公司（纽交所：CNC）、锡格纳公司（纽交所：CI）和摩利纳保健公司（纽交所：MOH）的估值比 Elevance Health 低了 3 倍。尽管 Elevance Health 的多样化和质量可以证明其价值超出其他公司，但这也限制了其进一步的增长潜力。
BofA Securities observes that Elevance Health has traditionally been seen as an investment lacking Medicare Advantage (MA) exposure. However, this perception may change following UnitedHealth's stronger-than-expected results and a potentially improving regulatory landscape.
美银证券观察到，Elevance Health 之前一直被视为一项缺乏医疗优势的投资。然而，随着联合健康的业绩超过预期和监管环境的逐步改善，这种看法可能会改变。
BofA has lowered the price target from $646 to $530 and downgraded Elevance Health to Neutral from Buy.
美银证券将 Elevance Health 的目标价下调至530美元，从买入评级下调至中性评级。
The potential for insufficient rates (to cover a worsening risk pool) has been a concern since the suspension redeterminations (four years ago) started. BofA analysts downgraded Medicaid-focused names earlier this year.
自四年前开始暂停重新评估以来，由于保障高风险人群的费率有可能不足，一直是一个担忧点。美银证券分析师今年早些时候下调了 Medicaid 重点关注企业的评级。
However, companies have long argued that states know risk pool shifts and that rates would proactively reflect the sicker population. Even though many companies built in some margin mean reversion into the 2024 guide, the margin pressure is still higher than expected.
然而，许多公司长期以来一直坚称，各州知晓风险池的变化，费率将会主动反映病情更重的人群。尽管许多公司将一些利润均值回归纳入了 2024 年的指南中，但利润压力仍高于预期。
The analyst writes, "Ultimately, we believe rates will reflect acuity over time, but the fact that ELV also called out underlying utilization accelerating as a separate dynamic, while hospitals are talking about Medicaid volume acceleration, raises the likelihood that pressures could continue into 2025."
分析师写道：“最终，我们认为费率将随着时间推移反映病情严重程度，但 ELV 也指出基础利用率加速是一个独立的动态因素，而医院则在谈论 Medicaid 成交量的加速，这提高了持续压力将持续到2025年的可能性。”
Other analyst reactions:
其他分析师反应如下：
- RBC Capital maintains Elevance Health with an Outperform and raises the price target from $575 to $585.
- Barclays maintains Elevance Health with an Overweight and lowers the price target from $621 to $611.
- RBC 资本保持对 Elevance Health 的推荐并将目标价从575美元上调至585美元。
- 巴克莱银行保持对 Elevance Health 的超重评级，并将目标价从621美元下调至611美元。
Price Action: ELV stock is down 2.7% at $506.85 at last check Thursday.
股票价格：周四最后检查，ELV 股价下跌 2.7%，报 506.85 美元。
Image via Shutterstock
图片来自shutterstock。
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