The China Hongbao Holdings Limited (HKG:8316) share price has softened a substantial 26% over the previous 30 days, handing back much of the gains the stock has made lately. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 86% loss during that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, when almost half of the companies in Hong Kong's Construction industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.3x, you may still consider China Hongbao Holdings as a stock probably not worth researching with its 1.5x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

What Does China Hongbao Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

For example, consider that China Hongbao Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as China Hongbao Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 3.8%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 6.7% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 10% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that China Hongbao Holdings' P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

There's still some elevation in China Hongbao Holdings' P/S, even if the same can't be said for its share price recently. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of China Hongbao Holdings revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You need to take note of risks, for example - China Hongbao Holdings has 4 warning signs (and 2 which are potentially serious) we think you should know about.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on China Hongbao Holdings, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com