The market has high expectations for Apple in AI.

However, the latest logic that AI drives iPhone upgrades has been questioned by well-known Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Overnight, Apple fell 2%, reporting $224.235 per share and a total market value of $3.44 trillion.

Sales of the iPhone 16 may not see a significant increase.

On Thursday, Kuo wrote that although there have been occasional reports of iPhone 16 orders increasing since WWDC, it appears that orders for the iPhone 16 may not have actually increased based on the statements from key suppliers.

He cited statements made by Taiwan Semiconductor and Largan Precision during their earnings calls to determine that while a specific supplier may see an increase in iPhone 16 orders in the second half of this year, overall orders for the iPhone 16 do not appear to have changed significantly (around 87 million units), which is still slightly lower than the number of iPhone 15 orders in the second half of last year, at around 91 million units.

Taiwan Semiconductor: we did not see kind of unit growth suddenly increased.
Largan Precision: this year's high-end model orders are similar to last year's.

Previously, media had reported that due to AI stimulation, shipments of the iPhone 16 in the second half of this year are expected to increase by 10% compared to last year, reaching at least 90 million units.For the increase in orders from some suppliers, Kuo believes it may be related to specific reasons for individual industries or components.More importantly, Kuo pointed out the biggest loophole in the logic of AI driving the upgrade wave: Apple Intelligence is currently only in beta testing and will only be available in certain regions in the second half of this year.

He noted that currently, the second half of the year's Apple Intelligence will only provide a beta version for testing to U.S. users, and Apple Intelligence Siri only supports English.

Apple Intelligence is still in beta.

Kuo believes that it may be too optimistic to expect customers to buy new iPhone 16s for the beta version of Apple Intelligence in the second half of this year.

At the same time, he also questioned whether AI alone can drive the demand for upgrades, which is also a major topic.

Previously, Glonhe had reported that due to regulatory factors, Apple will not launch AI features in Europe this year. Launching in Greater China will also take time.

Clearly, Kuo's views differ from those of many Wall Street giants.

local time on Thursday, Mingchi Kuo wrote that despite occasional reports of a surge in iPhone 16 orders since the World Wide Developers Conference, key suppliers' statements suggested that iPhone 16 orders may not have increased as much as expected. Focus Taiwan reported that in the second half, Apple may sell roughly the same number of iPhones as the iPhone 15, or 80 to 85 million units. This compares to shipments of around 90 million units for the iPhone 15 series during the same period last year.EuropeIt is obvious that the market has high expectations for Apple in AI.

He pointed out that it may be too optimistic to expect consumers to buy new iPhone 16s for a beta version of Apple Intelligence in the second half of this year, and questioned whether AI alone could stimulate demand for upgrades.

Recently, the target price for Apple was increased to $273 and it was named the preferred stock, claiming that the market has underestimated the surge in replacement demand due to AI. The estimated iPhone sales for the next two years have been raised from 0.23 billion-0.235 billion to nearly 0.5 billion. Morgan Stanley analysts said that Tesla is about to undergo a radical shift from selling cars to generating high-margin software and services businesses. Data shows that analysts expect Samsung and Apple to lead the recovery of the global smart phone market this year due to the trend of GenAI smart phones. Analysts rate Apple as a "buy" and the median target price is $217.

Analysts predict that due to the hype of GenAI smart phones, Samsung and Apple will lead the global smart phone market to recover this year. Analysts' rating for Apple is "buy" with a median target price of $217.