Macau casino stocks continue to decline recently. As of press time, MGM China (02282) fell 3.52%, at a price of HKD 11.52; Sands China (01928) fell 2.5%, at a price of HKD 15.62; Melco Int'l Dev (00200) fell 2.4%, at a price of HKD 4.89.
According to a research report by Lyon, due to the 1.6% quarterly decline in Macau's Q2 gambling revenue, it is forecasted that the industry's EBITDA in Q2 will fall by 5% to USD 1.934 billion. The gambling revenue forecast for 2024 and 2025 were also lowered by 3% and 5.3% to USD 28.6 billion and USD 29.7 billion, respectively. The industry's EBITDA forecast was reduced by 8.1% and 5.8%. It is expected that the industry's EBITDA will not fully recover to normal levels until the second half of next year.
Despite the recent impact of reduced gambling revenue in July and crackdowns on illegal money exchange, the stability of the balance sheet and fair competition should enable the companies tracked by the bank to withstand these short-term adverse factors. In addition, prior to this, Morgan Stanley reported that due to slow growth this month, it is expected that Macau's July gambling revenue will be around MOP 18.5 billion, which is lower than the original market expectation of over MOP 19 billion.
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