该行表示，《心动小镇》受众用户偏女性玩家与休闲玩家，与目前TapTap核心用户有所区别，有望带动TapTap进一步破圈，驱动用户增长。该行维持2024-2026年盈利预测，预计公司2024-2026年归母净利润分别为7.83/11.37/12.46亿元，对应EPS分别为1.6/2.4/2.6元，当前股价对应PE分别为9.3/6.4/5.8倍，该行看好新游戏及TapTap驱动公司业绩增长，维持“买入”评级。On July 17, Xd Inc. (02400), a mobile life simulation game developed by the company, was officially launched for public testing. On July 15, the total number of reservations for the game on all platforms has exceeded 3 million. On July 16, 'Xd Inc.' opened for public testing, ranking first in the AppStore free list and the TapTap popular list. As of July 17, 'Xd Inc.' has been downloaded more than 0.8 million times on the TapTap platform, and has an 8.8 rating.
The bank pointed out that, as a slow-paced life simulation game, the gameplay and payment logic of 'Xd Inc.' tend to have high DAU and low ARPU values. In the early stages, users are attracted through game quality and word-of-mouth, retaining them with rich content and strong social interactions, and then guiding them to pay through relatively low-priced skins, decorations, and other appearances, thereby contributing to a stable flow of revenue for the game. Therefore, 'Xd Inc.' may experience a user climb phase in the early stages before going live, and with the increase in active users, revenue is expected to continue to increase.
The bank continued to point out that by 2024, the game market will be rich in new products, including Tencent's 'DNF Mobile', 'Star Dawn', Netease's 'Endless' and 'Yanyun Sixteen Sounds', and MiHaYo's 'Genshin Impact: Zero' etc. The online release of a large number of new games may bring about an overall increase in demand for advertising. With the zero commission policy and a large number of core user groups, the TapTap platform is expected to continue to benefit from the increase in advertising demand, while outstanding game performance may also drive platform user growth.
The bank stated that the target audience for 'Xd Inc.' are female and leisure players, which is different from the current core user group on TapTap. It is expected to drive TapTap to break through its barriers and promote user growth. The bank maintains its profit forecast for 2024-2026, and expects the company's net income for the period to be 0.783/1.137/1.246 billion yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 1.6/2.4/2.6 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.3/6.4/5.8 times. The bank is bullish on the growth of the new games and TapTap, and maintains a 'buy' rating.