Bilibili is expected to achieve breakeven in non-GAAP operating profit in Q3.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to the “Buy” rating of Bilibili W (09626), the estimated revenue for 2024-2026 is 26.4/29.1/30.9 billion yuan, a three-year CAGR of 11.2%, and a target price of HK$156.23. The company's Q1 revenue was 5.66 billion yuan, up 11.7% year on year, slightly higher than market consensus expectations; gross profit margin was 28.3%, up 6.5 pcts year on year. Revenue is expected to achieve double-digit growth in the next quarter, with a slight increase in gross margin over month. It is expected to achieve breakeven in non-GAAP operating profit in Q3.
First, Shanghai's main views are as follows:
The advertising and live streaming business is growing strongly, and more advertising scenarios are being actively developed:
Q1 advertising revenue increased 31.2% year over year to 1.67 billion yuan, of which performance advertising revenue increased 50% year over year. Currently, the synergy of various advertising scenarios, including search, content, commercial advertising, etc., combined with fireworks platforms on the advertising system, continues to help the advertising business grow. Q1 value-added service revenue increased 17.3% year over year to 2.53 billion yuan, mainly due to the company's exploration of content payment models such as virtual anchors and charging models. During the 618 period, the company's delivery GMV increased 146% year over year, and advertising revenue increased 93% year over year, mainly advertising on e-commerce platforms. The company will continue to explore more advertising scenarios in the next few quarters, and the bank expects an annual advertising revenue growth rate of 24%.
The number of users has grown steadily, and the gross profit margin has been improved by reducing costs and increasing efficiency:
Q1's DAU increased 9.0% year over year to 0.1 billion; MAU increased 8.3% year over year to 0.34 billion; official members increased 15.1% year over year to 0.24 billion, of which the number of paid members reached 21.9 million; the average daily usage time of a single user was 105 minutes. This quarter's gross margin increased by 6.6/2.2 pcts year over month, and marketing/administration/R&D expenses decreased by 1.0/3.2/1.9 pcts year over year, respectively.
“Three Kingdoms: Designing the World” is expected to drive the game business to resume growth in the second half of the year:
The proxy SLG game “Three Kingdoms: Determining the World” ranked in the top three iOS bestsellers after its launch in June. The turnover is expected to be 3 billion yuan in 2024. According to the proxy game share ratio, the company can earn 70% of game revenue. Referring to the long-term sales situation of SLG games, it is estimated that the annual sales volume of “Sanmou” will be 5 billion yuan in 2025, contributing 3.5 billion yuan to the company's revenue.