A week ago, Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:GSBC) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 5.4% to hit US$57m. Great Southern Bancorp also reported a statutory profit of US$1.45, which was an impressive 20% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, Great Southern Bancorp's three analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$214.9m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$5.09, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$214.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.81 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target rose 13% to US$62.00, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Great Southern Bancorp at US$64.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$60.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.6% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 3.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.7% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Great Southern Bancorp is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Great Southern Bancorp following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Great Southern Bancorp. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Great Southern Bancorp analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Great Southern Bancorp that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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