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下周,谷歌和特斯拉将主宰美国科技股的命运

Next week, Google and Tesla will dominate the fate of technology stocks in the USA.

wallstreetcn ·  Jul 19 10:55

With the help of generative AI, Google is expected to continue its strong growth from Q1 and cloud revenue in Q2 is expected to increase significantly by 25% year-on-year. Tesla's gross margin in Q2 may be lower than expected, and investors will focus on the latest news on FSD, Robotaxi, and energy storage.

Tech stocks, especially chip stocks, in the United States have experienced an extremely difficult week under the pressure of Biden and Trump: The S&P 500 technology sector fell nearly 6% over the past week, with a market capitalization evaporating of approximately $900 billion.

Investor enthusiasm for 'big winner' tech stocks has gradually cooled, and funds have flowed into lagging sectors such as finance and small caps this year.

With the comprehensive opening of the financial reports of the seven sisters of American stocks next week, will the gears of fate start to turn again? At that time, the eyes of the global financial market will be focused on Tesla and Google.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Both Google's parent company will release their financial reports on July 23, next Tuesday, and Wall Street analysts have very different attitudes towards these two technology giants.$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Both will release their financial reports on July 23, next Tuesday, and Wall Street analysts have very different attitudes towards these two technology giants.

With the support of generative AI, will the performance of Google continue to soar?

According to data from Zacks Investment Research, analysts expect Alphabet's second-quarter revenue to reach $70.55 billion, up 13.7% year-on-year.

EPS is expected to reach $1.85, up 28.5% from the same period last year. It is worth noting that EPS expectations have been raised by 0.5% in the past seven days, and analysts have increased their confidence in Google's short-term performance.

In terms of business, Android, search, and cloud computing are expected to continue to maintain strong momentum. In particular, Google's continued investment and expansion in generative AI, including its powerful Gemini AI model, Vertex AI development tools, and Gemini Code Assist coding assistant, are expected to be important driving forces for this quarter's performance.

Benefiting from the integration of generative AI technology and continuous optimization in the field of mobile search, analysts expect Google's Q2 search and related revenues to reach $47.46 billion, up 11.3% year-on-year.

Google's application of Search Generative Experience (SGE) may have a positive impact on its advertising business. Analysts expect Google's Q2 advertising revenue to grow 10.5% year-on-year to $64.28 billion.

The conversational experience improvement in advertising service products Google Ads and Performance Max may increase the usage rate of advertising customers. The YouTube business is also receiving attention, with its ad and non-ad revenue expected to grow.

As a key engine for the company's growth, Google Cloud is expected to continue its rapid growth trend. Analysts expect Google Cloud's Q2 revenue to reach $10.08 billion, up 25.5% year-on-year.

In addition, driven by medical technology business, Google's other revenue is expected to reach $0.41482 billion, up 45.6% year-on-year.

Tesla's Q2 gross margin may fail to meet expectations, focusing on FSD, Robotaxi and energy storage

According to FactSet's surveyed analysts, Tesla's Q2 sales are expected to be $24.3 billion, down 2.4% year-on-year, and adjusted EPS is expected to be 61 cents, down 33% year-on-year.

Earlier data showed that Tesla's Q2 deliveries of 0.444 million were better than expected, maintaining its position as the world's top electric car seller. The delay in the release of robot taxis caused Tesla's stock price to plummet.

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard said in a media interview that the postponement of the release of Robotaxi is undoubtedly 'disappointing', but since it is only a postponement, once it is released later this year, it may still boost the stock. of the company.

Guggenheim analysts have a different view. They said in a recent report that the delay in Robotaxi may provide investors with an opportunity to 're-examine recent (Tesla stock price) catalysts. In our opinion, these catalysts are negative.'

Guggenheim pointed out that Tesla's Q2 gross margin may be lower than expected, and promotions and Q3 deliveries are expected to continue to decline year-on-year. Therefore, they maintain the sell rating for Tesla's stock.

Sheppard believes that although Tesla's Q2 sales are still below the level of the same period in 2023, it has encouraged investors' morale and is consistent with the company's slowing growth rate this year.

Sheppard is bullish on Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and expects FSD to be widely available in Tesla's on-sale models. He believes that, given Tesla's ongoing reduction in car prices, stable recurring income from FSD will help increase the company's profit margin and thus increase cash flow. The old models are also equipped with FSD, which will open up even greater sources of income. The cost of FSD is $99 per month or a one-time payment of $8,000.

According to Sheppard, FSD is the most polarizing issue for Tesla bulls and bears, as well as the core of most of the questions he hears from customer investors.

In addition, Wall Street is also paying attention to news about Tesla's fixed energy storage batteries. Sheppard said that Wall Street wants to hear about "the sustainability and delivery of energy storage, and how the prospects are in the second half of the year."

Furthermore, Wall Street is also keeping an eye on news about Tesla's fixed energy storage batteries. Sheppard said that Wall Street wants to hear about "the sustainability and delivery of energy storage, and how the prospects are in the second half of the year."

Edited by Jeffrey

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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