Mark Spitznagel, the founder of the tail risk hedging fund "Black Swan" fund Universa, recently issued a warning that the current market may be in the "biggest bubble in human history". In an interview with the media this week, Spitznagel warned that as inflation falls and the Fed's loose policy stimulates further market bets, the market is in the "blonde girl phase", but interest rate cuts may become the starting point for a big reversal. "We are heading for a very bad situation," Spitznagel said. He compared the current economic situation to a "super powder keg-timed bomb", believing that the government's practice of suppressing economic fluctuations is accumulating a lot of hidden dangers. Although the current US stock index is hitting new highs, he believes that potential risks are accumulating. In discussions about the direction of the stock market, Spitznagel's remarks always attract high attention from investors. Since the establishment of Universa in 2008, he has made huge profits through a series of amazing operations, including a "record-breaking" profit of 1 billion US dollars in one day.

Note: "Blonde girl" is an economic term that refers to an economic entity where high growth and low inflation coexist. During an interview with the media this week, Spitznagel warned that as inflation falls and the Fed's loose policy stimulates further market bets, the market is in the "blonde girl phase", but interest rate cuts may become the starting point for a big reversal.

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"We are heading for a very bad situation," Spitznagel said. He compared the current economic situation to a "super powder keg-timed bomb", believing that the government's practice of suppressing economic fluctuations is accumulating a lot of hidden dangers. Although the current US stock index is hitting new highs, he believes that potential risks are accumulating.

In discussions about the direction of the stock market, Spitznagel's remarks always attract high attention from investors. Since the establishment of Universa in 2008, he has made huge profits through a series of amazing operations, including a "record-breaking" profit of 1 billion US dollars in one day.

As a disciple of "Black Swan" author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, this mysterious quantitative investment expert adopts a complex strategy. On weekdays, this strategy almost loses money every day, but in extremely volatile markets such as the 2008 financial crisis, the 2015 flash crash, and the 2020 new crown epidemic crash, Spitznagel's strategy often works wonders.

Note: This round of adjustment will surpass the Internet bubble, and interest rate cuts may become the starting point for a big reversal. Spitznagel pointed out that compared with the 1999 Internet bubble, this round of market over-reaction is more extreme, so this round of adjustment will surpass the Internet bubble.

Spitznagel pointed out that compared with the 1999 Internet bubble, this round of market over-reaction is more extreme, so this round of adjustment will surpass the Internet bubble.

Spitznagel also believes that due to high public debt and high valuations, it may be more difficult for the US government's rescue measures to be implemented after the market adjustment.

It is worth noting that many well-known bearish analysts have lost their jobs recently, a phenomenon that is astonishingly similar to the eve of the Internet bubble. For example:

Marko Kolanovic of JPMorgan also maintained a bearish position during the AI uptrend and ultimately lost his job.

At the end of 1999, a few months before the S&P 500 index peaked, Charles Clough, Merrill Lynch's bearish strategist, left the company.

Spitznagel predicts that as inflation falls and the Fed's policy shifts, the market may continue to rise in the coming months, even more crazy. However, interest rate cuts are usually the starting point for a big reversal.

He also believes that the US economy may enter a recession by the end of this year.

Spitznagel predicts that the stock market will soon experience a large-scale sell-off, and the market value may shrink by more than half.

However, objectively speaking, predicting when the stock market will collapse is even more difficult than predicting when a hedge fund portfolio will collapse-some industry insiders even believe that predicting when the stock market will collapse is impossible.

Just as many fund managers and strategists always sound optimistic, for those who make money by tail risk, "Market intimidation" sounds like a shrewd marketing tactic.

It is worth mentioning that Spitznagel joked in an interview this week:

"I think we are heading towards some very, very bad things-of course I would say that."

He added:

"You won't feel like a fool for expressing a bearish view."