Morgan Stanley stated that the key to Pop Mart's growth in the Chinese market lies in its attractive products, while its strong expansion in overseas markets is mainly due to the high productivity of its offline stores. It is expected that its sales in the first half of the year will increase by 58% year-on-year, and its adjusted net income will increase by 78% year-on-year. The net income for the whole year is expected to increase significantly by 102% year-on-year.
Pop Mart's performance is expected to exceed expectations, with Morgan Stanley predicting a doubling of net income for the year.
On Thursday, July 18th, Pop Mart, a trendy toy company, announced its profit forecast, expecting a year-on-year revenue growth of no less than 55% and a net profit growth of no less than 90% for the first half of 2024.
According to the report, the growth in performance is mainly due to the further recognition of IP globally, diversified product categories, high-speed growth in revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and overseas, and continuous optimization of product costs.
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The day after the profit forecast announcement, Pop Mart's stock price rose against the trend, rising nearly 12% at one point and closing up 10.49% on the day at HK$41.6 per share, with a turnover of over HK$0.6 billion.
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On the 18th, Morgan Stanley released a research report, predicting that Pop Mart's year-on-year sales growth rate for the first half of the year would be 58%, and its adjusted net profit growth rate would be 78%, far higher than the bank's previous forecasts of 40% and 45% for revenue and net profit growth.
The report stated that strong growth in online sales and the Pop Land theme park were the main drivers of the Chinese market, with overseas revenue accounting for 30% of total revenue in the first half of the year.
Morgan Stanley believes that, with multiple profit drivers at work, there is still room for Pop Mart's stock price to rise, setting a target price of HK$52, which still represents a 25% upside compared to Friday's closing price.
With IP, products, and channels all powering ahead, bullish about growth prospects for the second half of the year.
For the Chinese market, the report predicts that Pop Mart's second-quarter revenue growth rate will be 40%, higher than the 20% growth rate in the first quarter, thanks largely to strong performance in the online channel and the promotion of the Pop Land theme park. In addition, offline sales have also performed well, with SSSG in the youth market becoming an important driver.
Morgan Stanley points out that "appealing products" are the key to accelerating growth in the Chinese market.
For the overseas market, the report predicts a Q2 revenue growth rate of 240%, similar to Q1. By channel, offline stores are the main driver of sales, accounting for about 70% of revenue, and the strong momentum of the brand, products, and IP is also driving rapid growth in online sales overseas.
The report believes that the key driver of the overseas market is the productivity of offline stores, which is currently over 100%, and also benefits from the opening up of new markets and the strengthening of brand influence.
For the whole year, Morgan Stanley predicts that Pop Mart's net income will soar 102%, and that adjusted net income will grow by 72% year-on-year, and is optimistic about Pop Mart's prospects in the second half of the year. It is expected to add 50-60 stores in the second half of the year, and the key factors driving growth are faster replenishment and the expansion of product categories.