It's shaping up to be a tough period for PPG Industries, Inc. (NYSE:PPG), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. PPG Industries missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of US$4.8b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.24, falling short by 2.6% and 2.0% respectively. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, PPG Industries' 21 analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$18.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 22% to US$7.58. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$18.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.76 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$152, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PPG Industries at US$166 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$118. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that PPG Industries' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 1.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 5.7% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that PPG Industries is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that PPG Industries' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple PPG Industries analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for PPG Industries you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com