President Biden announced that he will not seek re-election and expressed support for Vice President Kamala Harris as the next Democratic candidate. This news has caused waves on the political stage and has brought new variables to the crypto market. If Trump can return to the White House, bitcoin miners and crypto companies that were once blocked from listing in the United States may have a turnaround and become big winners in the digital asset field. At the same time, companies that rely on overseas markets may face the risk of market share loss.

On social media, Elon Musk's profile picture has been given laser eyes, a symbol of enthusiasm for bitcoin, which has been widely circulated, demonstrating the optimistic attitude of the crypto community towards the future development of bitcoin. Teong Hng, CEO of Satori Research, also pointed out that active trading in the off-exchange options market indicates that bitcoin may soon return to its historical highs. The continued increase in interest in call options with an exercise price of $100,000 in December 2024 reflects institutional investors' bullish sentiment towards bitcoin. Hng said that he "expects a strong rebound by the end of the year, with Trump's victory as its emblem."

As Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrency becomes increasingly open, market observers are starting to reassess the prospects for the industry. Although the outcome of the November election is still unpredictable, Trump's lead in the polls and his positive comments on cryptocurrency have undoubtedly given the industry a shot in the arm.

"If the American people are willing to accept new rules, almost everyone can be a winner in this revolution," said Christian Catalini, founder of the Cryptoeconomics Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The Spring of Bitcoin miners

Since Biden's poor performance in the debate, the rise in bitcoin prices and the soaring prices of crypto blockchain verification companies have been the most prominent reactions in the market. Trump's meeting with bitcoin miners in June and his positive remarks on Truth Social indicate that he sees bitcoin mining as an important means of countering central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and emphasizes the importance of "American manufacturing."

During this period,$Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$And.$Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$ and other listed companies' stock prices have risen by about 30%, while $Cipher Mining (CIFR.US)$'s stock price has risen by nearly 50%, showing strong confidence in these companies in the market.

New opportunities for the first public offering in the cryptocurrency market

After experiencing the turmoil in the cryptocurrency market in 2022, companies in the industry seem to be reinvigorated and are planning their first public offerings (IPOs), which seemed unimaginable not long ago. Circle, an institution that issued a stablecoin USDC worth about $33 billion, withdrew its listing application more than a year ago, but resubmitted its IPO application in January. At the same time, Northern Data, which has shifted from the cryptocurrency mining business to an artificial intelligence computing service provider, is considering a US listing with a valuation of up to $16 billion. In addition, Kraken, the second largest cryptocurrency trading platform in the United States, is also actively preparing for its IPO.

However, these companies have always faced significant challenges in obtaining approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The SEC views many crypto tokens as unregistered securities, and SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has been controversial for his strict regulation and legal actions against crypto companies during his tenure, including criticism from industry leaders such as CEO Brian Armstrong. Against this background, if Trump is elected again, he may appoint a more crypto-friendly SEC chairman, bringing new hope to these companies' IPO road.$Coinbase (COIN.US)$

New opportunities for digital exchanges

Trump's re-election may also make the banking system more open to cryptocurrency companies. Currently, the bankruptcy of cryptocurrency-friendly banks such as Silvergate and Signature limits the opportunities for cryptocurrency companies to obtain banking services. If Trump can promote the banking system's acceptance of cryptocurrency, this will undoubtedly bring new vitality to digital asset trading platforms.

Challenges from overseas competitors

Although Trump's victory may bring widespread optimism to the cryptos industry, this change may also bring challenges to certain companies, especially for offshore crypto exchanges such as Binance, OKX, and Deribit, which have gained market share due to US strict regulations. If the US regulatory environment becomes more friendly, domestic companies may introduce more diversified financial products and services, such as providing higher leverage or more flexible expiry date for crypto options and futures contracts, which may weaken the competitive advantage of these offshore platforms.

At the same time, China's bitcoin mining manufacturer Bitmain may also face challenges. As the world's largest supplier of bitcoin mining machines, Bitmain's market position may be impacted by Trump administration's foreign trade policies and the vision of producing bitcoin in the United States. With US companies such as Block and Auradine launching innovative chips and mining equipment to the market, Bitmain may find its dominant position in the US market threatened and need to cope with increasingly competitive environment.

The future of central bank digital currency (CBDC).

Trump's strong opposition to central bank digital currency (CBDC) may have far-reaching implications for this field. Many crypto participants believe that CBDC is a way for governments to strengthen their financial monitoring of citizens. With Trump's new support for cryptos, people are also disgusted with the idea of creating digital dollars. In the United States, although research on CBDC is underway, the Federal Reserve has not yet made a formal decision on whether to implement CBDC.

If Trump returns to the White House next year, his opposition to CBDC may become the last straw that breaks this concept, further consolidating the position of cryptos in the US economy.

Editor/ping