Is Loncin Motor (SHSE:603766) A Risky Investment?
Is Loncin Motor (SHSE:603766) A Risky Investment?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Loncin Motor Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603766) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
霍华德·马克斯说得很好,与其担心股价波动,“我担心的是永久性损失的可能性……我认识的每个实践投资者都会担心这个问题。”当我们思考一家公司的风险时,我们总是喜欢看它的债务使用情况,因为债务过重可能会导致破产。我们注意到隆鑫通用(SHSE:60376)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但是真正的问题是,这些债务是否让公司变得有风险。
When Is Debt A Problem?
什么时候负债才是一个问题?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
债务是帮助企业增长的工具,但如果公司无法偿还贷款,那么它将完全受到贷方控制。最坏的情况是,如果公司无法偿付债权人,它将破产。然而,更经常发生的(但仍然代价昂贵)是公司必须以低于市价的价格发行股票,从而永久稀释股东的份额,只是为了支撑其资产负债表。当然,许多公司使用债务资助增长,而没有任何负面影响。考虑企业使用多少债务时,首先要做的是将其现金和债务放在一起考虑。
How Much Debt Does Loncin Motor Carry?
隆鑫通用的负债有多大?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Loncin Motor had CN¥303.6m of debt in March 2024, down from CN¥677.1m, one year before. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥5.62b in cash, so it actually has CN¥5.32b net cash.
您可以点击下面的图表查看历史数字,但它显示隆鑫通用在2024年3月有3.036亿元的债务,比一年前的6.771亿元减少。然而,其资产负债表显示其持有56.2亿的现金,因此其净现金为53.2亿。
A Look At Loncin Motor's Liabilities
看看隆鑫通用的负债
According to the last reported balance sheet, Loncin Motor had liabilities of CN¥4.99b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥292.5m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥5.62b in cash and CN¥1.98b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it can boast CN¥2.31b more liquid assets than total liabilities.
根据最后报告的资产负债表,隆鑫通用有CN¥49.9亿的负债到期在12个月内,有CN¥29250万的负债到12个月以上。与此相抵消的是,它拥有56.2亿的现金和19.8亿的应收账款,在12个月内到期。因此,它可以吹嘘比总负债多23.1亿的流动资产。
It's good to see that Loncin Motor has plenty of liquidity on its balance sheet, suggesting conservative management of liabilities. Due to its strong net asset position, it is not likely to face issues with its lenders. Simply put, the fact that Loncin Motor has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.
很高兴看到隆鑫通用的资产负债表上有足够的流动性,表明负债的管理非常审慎。由于其强大的净资产,它不可能遇到与贷款人的问题。简单地说,隆鑫通用拥有比债务更多的现金可能意味着它可以安全地管理其债务。
In addition to that, we're happy to report that Loncin Motor has boosted its EBIT by 70%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Loncin Motor will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
此外,我们很高兴地报告,隆鑫通用将其税息折旧及摊销前利润(EBIt)提高了70%,从而减少了未来偿债的风险。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显然的起点。但是你不能完全孤立地看待债务,因为隆鑫通用将需要盈利来偿还债务。因此,在考虑债务时,肯定值得看一下收入趋势。请点击这里查看交互式快照。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. While Loncin Motor has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Happily for any shareholders, Loncin Motor actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
最后,虽然财务人员可能喜欢会计利润,而贷款人只接受现金。虽然隆鑫通用在其资产负债表上拥有净现金,但查看其将税息前利润(EBIT)转化为自由现金流的能力仍然值得一看,以帮助我们了解其积累(或侵蚀)现金的速度。令股东感到高兴的是,隆鑫通用在过去三年中实际上产生了比EBIt更多的自由现金流。这种强劲的现金转化让我们感到倍受期待,就像听到Daft Punk音乐会上音乐打击的人群一样。
Summing Up
总之
While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Loncin Motor has CN¥5.32b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. The cherry on top was that in converted 134% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in CN¥1.3b. When it comes to Loncin Motor's debt, we sufficiently relaxed that our mind turns to the jacuzzi. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Loncin Motor you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.
虽然调查公司的负债水平总是明智的,但在这种情况下,隆鑫通用拥有5.32亿元的净现金和一张看起来不错的资产负债表。最后,它将134%的EBIt转化为自由现金流,带来了13亿元。当涉及隆鑫通用的债务时,我们感到非常放松,以至于我们的想象力开始膨胀。资产负债表显然是分析负债的重点区域。但是,归根结底,每家公司都可能存在平衡表之外的风险。实际情况是:我们发现了隆鑫通用的三个警告标志,您应该注意其中1个有些令人担忧。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
说到底,有时更容易关注那些甚至不需要债务的公司。读者可以免费查看零净债务增长股票列表,立即获得。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对本文有反馈?对内容感到担忧?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
对本文有反馈?对内容感到担忧?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。