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拜登退了,谁来接棒?

Biden resigned, who will take over?

wallstreetcn ·  Jul 22 00:01

Vice President Harris is the top contender, followed by California Governor Newsom, Michigan Governor Whitmer and Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro.

After announcing his withdrawal from the race on Sunday, who from the Democratic Party will take the baton and go up against Trump?

Vice President Kamala Harris is the top candidate, followed by Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California who strongly promotes wind power, as well as Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro, who respectively control two major swing states.

Kamala Harris

Harris' biggest advantage is that Biden has endorsed her. Biden himself stated on social media on the 22nd that he will fully support Harris as the Democratic Party's candidate this year.

This also means that compared to other candidates, Harris is more likely to receive support because Harris is essentially continuing Biden's policies, and the campaign funds that originally supported Biden are highly likely to support her in the future.

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Isaac Boltansky, Director of Policy Research at BTIG, pointed out that in terms of policy, Biden and Harris have almost no differences on major issues. Harris is essentially continuing Biden's policies, perhaps with only slight changes in emphasis. For example, Harris is a staunch advocate for combating climate change and has expressed concern about it on many occasions, emphasizing the impact of climate change on the global economy and society, and proposing some countermeasures.

She also advocated for providing a $6,000 tax rebate for middle- and low-income families, with more and more Democratic leaders supporting her, including the Clintons.

Gavin Newsom

If Harris does not receive the nomination, Governor Newsom of California is viewed as the best candidate. On the one hand, California is the Democratic Party's stronghold, and regardless of who is nominated, the Democratic Party almost has no chance of losing.

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On the other hand, Newsom's advantage is that he has experience in carrying out large-scale campaign activities. He even participated in a debate during this round of elections, against then-Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis in December of last year.

In terms of policy, Newsom also staunchly defends Biden's economic policies. In California, he actively promotes wind power policies, hoping to make California completely use clean energy within twenty years.

More importantly, Newsom stated last week that he would not challenge Harris if she sought to run for president.

Gretchen Whitmer

In addition to Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is also a major candidate, partly because she has been active in swing state Michigan for more than five years, and Michigan's impact on the election is crucial.

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In the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Whitmer defeated her Republican challenger by a margin of 10 percentage points, leading Democrats to believe that as a presidential or even vice presidential nominee, Whitmer can not only support Michigan, but also other "rust belt" states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In terms of policy, Whitmer is more moderate than some of her competitors. She encourages economic incentives for large enterprises such as Ford Motor, to encourage these large companies to expand in the state. This has caused some local politicians to be dissatisfied, as they believe that this money should be used for public infrastructure construction. As a candidate, she won the support of wealthy suburbs in Michigan that were alienated by Trump.

Josh Shapiro

Like Whitmer, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has the advantage of controlling a swing state. Shapiro has only been governor of Pennsylvania for a year and a half, but he had already established a certain degree of popularity nationwide as the state's Attorney General before then.

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As governor, Shapiro has tried to maintain a balance between promoting the transition to new energy and maintaining the balance between regions that partially rely on traditional fossil fuels for employment in Pennsylvania. He has proposed a plan to tackle carbon emissions, Pennsylvania will establish its own independent carbon pricing program, with most of the emission costs borne by traditional energy power plants to lower consumers' electricity bills.

In a theoretical showdown with Trump, his approval rating is much better than Biden's, according to a recent poll by BlueLabs Analytics earlier this month, which showed that Shapiro and Whitmer and other candidates have a support rate in swing states of "about 5 percentage points" higher than Biden. Even if Shapiro does not receive the presidential nomination, this polling data may make him a potential vice presidential candidate.

But like Newsom, Xavier Becerra also voiced his support for Harris on Sunday, saying in a statement that "uniting behind the Vice President is the best path forward for Democrats."

Therefore, based on the statements of the public, if Harris continues to run, Whitmer, Newsom, and Xavier Becerra are likely to all step aside for her.

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