Jingu Cai Xun | Golden stocks have collectively declined, with China Gold International (02099) falling 4.97%, Zhaojin Mining (01818) falling 3.52%, Shandong Gold (01787) falling 3.26%, Zijin Mining Group (02899) falling 3.21%, and Lingbao Gold (03330) falling 2.4%.
Galaxy Futures stated that due to the recent major macro data in the United States such as employment, CPI is lower than expected, plus Fed officials including Powell affirm progress on controlling inflation, the market has heavily bet on a rate cut for September, causing the US dollar index and the 10-year t-note yield to fall to lows since late March at one point. However, it is necessary to consider that both have rebounded from their lows, putting pressure on metals and causing them to go into adjustment phase. Currently, it is best to wait and see.
China Post Securities said that after gold hit a new high and fell sharply, silver continued to show weakness and fell continuously. The core of this week's trade is the strengthening of Trump's chances of re-election after being shot, and the probability of continuing to expand the US fiscal policy, combined with the continuous decline of 2-year t-notes over two years. Finally, with the joint catalyst of the two bullish factors, it hit a historic high, but gold prices stop loss as the 2-year t-notes rebounded after the new high, resulting in a 0.55% drop in COMEX gold and a 5.22% drop in silver this week. The bank believes that in the long term, the US deficit rate will increase, geopolitical disruptions will be added, and the logic of central bank purchases of gold will remain unchanged, and the pace of rate cuts may accelerate with the weakening of US employment. The gold market is expected to reopen in H2 2024. In the short term: Trump's trade is basically over, and the subsequent focus still needs to be on the US economic data situation. Gold and silver can continue to be laid out on dips.