Microsoft Stock Has Further Room To Run, Says Analyst, As Software Giant Remains On Track To Hit $200B Cloud Revenue In 2 Years
Microsoft Stock Has Further Room To Run, Says Analyst, As Software Giant Remains On Track To Hit $200B Cloud Revenue In 2 Years
"Growth investors should look beyond near-term fears of an AI overbuild with the lens of a broader cloud transformation still underway that could help sustain double-digit top-line and bottom-line growth through 2030," the analyst said. He expects the Cloud mix, aided by AI, to expand to 63% by fiscal year 2026, up from 53% today and sharply higher than the 10% in fiscal 2016.Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) shares received a nice price target bump a week ahead of the software giant's quarterly earnings release.
即将进入软件巨头季度财报发布前一周，微软股票 (纳斯达克代码：MSFT) 目标价获得良好上调。
The Microsoft Analyst: Piper Sandler analyst Brent Bracelin reiterated an Overweight rating on Microsoft shares and upped the price target from $465 to $485. The updated price target suggests the stock has about 10% upside potential.
微软分析师：派杰投资分析师 Brent Bracelin 重申对微软股票的增持评级，并将目标价从465美元调整至485美元。新的目标价表明该股票有约10%的上涨潜力。
Microsoft took 13 years (from fiscal 2010 to 2023) to achieve a $100 billion annual revenue run-rate for its Cloud services business but the next $100 billion cloud revenue could come in just three years, said Bracelin in a note. Over the 13-years, capex and lease exceeded $176 billion, he noted. The critical data center investments should, therefore, be compressed to support a potential doubling of Microsoft Cloud revenue to $200 billion+ exiting fiscal year 2026, he said.
分析师 Bracelin 在一份研究报告中表示，微软云服务业务历经13年（从财年2010年到2023年）才达成1000亿美元年营业收入水平，但下一个1000亿美元的云服务业务营收可能在仅三年内达成。他指出，在这13年间，资本支出和租赁支出总额超过1760亿美元。因此，重要的数据中心投资应该被压缩，以支持微软云服务业务在2026年财年后期有可能翻倍至2000亿美元+的营收。
"Growth investors should look beyond near-term fears of an AI overbuild with the lens of a broader cloud transformation still underway that could help sustain double-digit top-line and bottom-line growth through 2030," the analyst said. He expects the Cloud mix, aided by AI, to expand to 63% by fiscal year 2026, up from 53% today and sharply higher than the 10% in fiscal 2016.
“成长投资者应该透过一个正在进行的更广泛云转型的眼镜，超越人工智能过度建设的近期担忧，这将有助于维持到2030年的双位数盈利增长率和营业收入增长率，” 分析师说。他预计，云服务业务的组合，在人工智能的帮助下，到2026财年将扩展至63%，高于当前的53%，大大高于2016财年的10%。
Azure, which accounts for 33% of sales, is approaching a $85 billion run-rate, with growth exceeding 30%, Bracelin said. The analyst expects June quarter Azure revenue growth of 32% on a constant currency basis compared to the 30-31% guidance, with AI contributing at least seven percentage points of growth.
布雷斯林指出，Azure占微软销售额的33%，接近850亿美元的年营业收入水平，增长率超过了30%。他预计，在常币情况下，Azure在6月季度的营收增长率将达到32%，高于30%-31%的指引，人工智能的贡献至少为7个百分点。
The analyst noted that a majority of Microsoft AI shows up in IaaS rather than SaaS, with the proportion at 95% vs. 5%. He expects capex and lease to surpass $19 billion in the June quarter.
分析师指出，微软大多数人工智能都出现在基础设施即服务（IaaS）而非软件即服务（SaaS）领域，比例为95%:5%。他预计，资本支出和租赁支出将在6月季度超过19亿美元。
As such, the analyst increased his calendar year 2025 earnings per share estimate by 17 cents on slightly higher growth assumptions, and the calendar year 2025 P/E multiple from 33 times to 34 times on strong cloud momentum. The upward adjustment to the price target is to give effect to the revisions to the earnings estimate and the P/E multiple, he added.
因此，分析师提高了对2025年每股收益的估计，上调了17美分，并将2025年P/E多次法从33倍上调至34倍，因为这一强劲的云增长动能。他补充说，目标价的上修反映了对盈利预估和P/E多次法的修订。
Microsoft is scheduled to report its fiscal year 2024 fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes on Tuesday, July 30. Analysts, on average, expect the company to report earnings per share of $2.93 and revenue of $64.35 billion. This compares to the year-ago earnings of $2.69 per share and revenue of $56.19 billion.
微软定于7月30日周二收盘后公布其2024财年第四季度财报。分析师平均预计其本季度每股收益为2.93美元，营收为643.5亿美元。去年同期每股收益为2.69美元，营收为561.9亿美元。
Microsoft Price Action: Microsoft shares ended Monday's session up 1.33% to $442.94, according to Benzinga Pro data. The stock has gained over 18% year-to-date.
微软股价表现：根据Benzinga Pro数据，微软股票收盘上涨1.33%，报442.94美元。该股今年以来上涨逾18%。
Photo by Volodymyr Kyrylyuk on Shutterstock
摄影：Shutterstock网站上Volodymyr Kyrylyuk的照片。