科技股上周下跌，因投资者纷纷涌向较小型公司股票，押注美联储预期中的降息将最终对其构成提振。以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数创下4月以来最大单周跌幅。本周反弹似乎也比较脆弱。Although investors are worried about the continued decline of US technology giants, Barclays strategists say strong earnings prospects mean the sector remains attractive after a recent slump.
The team led by Venu Krishna raised the year-end target of the S&P 500 index from 5,300 points to 5,600 points, citing good profit expectations for large technology companies. This forecast implies a 0.6% increase from current levels, higher than the strategist's average expected level of 5,431 points.
"Recent declines seem to be under control," Krishna wrote in the report. "Although our valuation assumptions for large technology companies are high, the price-to-earnings ratios adjusted for growth are reasonable, and we expect these stocks to live up to their valuations."
Technology stocks fell last week as investors rushed into smaller company stocks, betting that the expected rate cut by the Fed would ultimately provide a boost. The Nasdaq 100, dominated by technology stocks, had its biggest weekly decline since April. The rebound this week seems to be fragile.
The Barclays team said that the sell-off appeared to be driven by systemic or technical factors rather than fundamentals. Citigroup data showed that bullish positions on the Nasdaq 100 index fell from a three-year high. Even so, the bullish positions are still too high.
"Painful trading" may have a way to go, according to Barclays' Krishna, "but we believe that with the focus shifting to second-quarter earnings, this is an opportunity to reset valuations."
According to industry research compilation data, analysts expect second-quarter profits for large technology stocks - the "magnificent 7" composed of Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, and Alphabet - to grow by 30%.
Although below the first quarter's 51% increase, it is still much higher than the expected increase of 9.9% for the S&P 500 index as a whole.
