China Jul EV Sales Preview: Deutsche Bank Expects Nio at 21,000 Units, Xpeng 10,000, BYD 300,000
China Jul EV Sales Preview: Deutsche Bank Expects Nio at 21,000 Units, Xpeng 10,000, BYD 300,000
Deutsche Bank also expects Tesla to sell 45,000 units at retail in China in July, Li Auto at 48,000 units and Zeekr at 15,000 units.
德意志银行还预计特斯拉在7月份在中国的零售销量为45,000辆，理想汽车为48,000辆，而Zeekr则为15,000辆。
Deutsche Bank expects Nio (NYSE: NIO) to continue to deliver more than 20,000 units in July, which would put it on track to exceed that mark for the third straight month.
德意志银行预计Nio（纽交所：NIO）在7月份将继续交付超过20,000辆，这将使其连续第三个月超越这一数字。
In a research note sent to investors today, analyst Wang Bin's team shared their July delivery forecasts for major new energy vehicle (NEV) makers, saying it won't be easy to achieve sequential growth.
分析师王斌的团队在今天给投资者发的一份研究报告中分享了对几大新能源厂商7月份交付的预测，称实现环比增长并不容易。
Specifically, the team expects Nio to retail 21,000 units in July, flat year-on-year and flat sequentially.
具体而言，该团队预计Nio在7月份零售21,000辆，同比持平，环比持平。
"NIO domestic retail sales totaled 13.3k units in the past three weeks of July, and we estimate NIO's full-month July delivery volume at ~21k units (flat YoY and flat MoM)," the team said.
“ NIO在7月前三周的国内零售销量累计达到13,300辆，我们估计NIO的7月份全月交付量约为2.1万辆（同比持平，环比持平）。”该团队表示。
Nio's new order flow is forecast to be around 22,000 units as its promotional efforts in the first 20 days of July are in line with its June policy, the team said.
该团队表示，Nio的新订单数量预计约为22,000辆，因为其在7月前20天的促销活动与其6月的政策相符。
However, Nio declared a RMB 5,000 ($690) reduction in promotion for the ES6 and EC6 and a RMB 3,000 reduction for the ET5 and ET5 Touring from July 22, the team noted.
然而，该团队指出，Nio自7月22日起宣布推出ES6和EC6的RMb 5,000（690美元）的促销和ET5和ET5 Touring的RMb 3,000（408美元）的促销。
This brought a meaningful spike in new orders before the promotion reduction, the team said.
该团队表示，此举在促销减少之前带来了新订单的明显增加。
Nio delivered 21,209 vehicles in June, surpassing its previous record of 20,544 in May to set a new high.
Nio在6月份交付了21,209辆车，超过了5月份20,544辆的创纪录交付量。
Wang's team expects Xpeng to retail 10,000 units in July, down 6 percent sequentially and down 9 percent year-on-year.
王的团队预计小鹏汽车7月份零售10,000辆，环比下降6％，同比下降9％。
Xpeng's domestic retail sales in July are estimated at 8,500 units and overseas deliveries are estimated at 1,500 units, according to the team.
该团队表示，根据其内部数据，小鹏汽车7月份的国内零售销量估计为8,500辆，海外交付量估计为1,500辆。
In the first three weeks of July, Xpeng's domestic retail sales totaled 5,400 units, the team said, adding that Xpeng offered more discounts to car buyers in July amid tough market conditions.
该团队表示，在7月份的强市环境下，小鹏汽车向汽车买家提供更多折扣。7月份，汽车买家必须在现金补贴和汽车金融利率补贴之间进行选择。
Earlier, in June, car buyers had to choose between a cash subsidy and a car finance interest rate subsidy. The company has started offering both cash subsidy and 0 percent interest car finance in the same amount as in June.
该公司已经开始同时提供现金补贴和0％利率汽车金融，金额与6月份相同。
As a result, Xpeng offered subsidies ranging from RMB 15,000 to RMB 20,000 per unit for the P7i and RMB 15,000 per unit for the P5, G6 and G9, the team noted.
因此，小鹏汽车提供的补贴金额从15,000元到20,000元不等，单台P7i为15,000元，P5，G6和G9为15,000元/台，该团队指出。
Xpeng doesn't have a large backlog of orders on hand at the moment, so the number of new orders is very similar to its deliveries, the team said, adding that all the products in its portfolio only have to wait 1-2 weeks to get the car.
该团队表示，小鹏汽车目前没有大量积压的订单，因此新订单的数量非常接近其交付量。该公司产品组合中的所有产品都只需要等待1-2周即可得到汽车。
Wang's team expects Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) to retail 48,000 units in July, slightly below the company's target of 50,000 units, up 41 percent year-on-year and flat sequentially.
王斌的团队预计理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）在7月份零售48，000辆，略低于该公司的目标50，000辆，年增长41％，环比持平。
Li Auto's domestic retail sales totaled 30,000 units in the first three weeks of July, the team said, adding that the company's new order flow is estimated to be around 46,000 units.
该团队表示，理想汽车在7月份的国内零售销售额在前三周累计达到30,000辆，该公司的新订单流量预计约为46,000辆。
The team expects Tesla to retail 45,000 units in China in July, up 37 percent year-on-year while down 23 percent sequentially.
该团队预计特斯拉在7月份在中国零售销量为45,000辆，同比增长37％，环比下降23％。
Tesla China's domestic retail sales in the first three weeks of July totaled 28,400 units, and its new order flow is expected to be 40,000-50,000 units, according to the team.
特斯拉中国在7月前三周的国内零售销售额达到28,400辆，新订单流量预计为40,000-50,000辆。
BYD's July retail sales are expected to be 300,000 units, up 8.5 percent sequentially and up 41 percent year-on-year, Wang's team said.
王的团队表示，比亚迪7月份零售销售额预计为30万台，环比增长8.5％，同比增长41％。
BYD's domestic retail sales totaled 194,000 units in the first three weeks of July, and based on dealer feedback, it has a pretty good flow of new orders in July, which are expected to exceed 300,000 units, the team said.
比亚迪7月前三周的国内零售销量达到了19.4万台，在经销商的反馈基础上，预计7月新订单流量非常好，预计将超过30万台。该团队表示。
Deutsche Bank expects Zeekr (NYSE: ZK) to retail 15,000 units in July, up 25 percent year-on-year while down 25 percent sequentially.
德意志银行预计Zeekr（纽交所：ZK）7月零售销量为1.5万台，同比增长25%，环比下降25%。
Zeekr's domestic retail sales totaled 10,200 units in the first three weeks of July, and it has new orders estimated at about 15,000 units in July, the team said.
Zeekr在7月前三周的国内零售销量为10200台，预计7月新订单约15000台，该团队表示。
Leapmotor's retail volume in July is estimated at 21,000 units, up 46 percent year-on-year and up 4 percent sequentially.
Leapmotor在7月的零售销量预计为21,000台，同比增长46%，环比增长4%。
Its domestic retail sales totaled 13,100 units in the first three weeks of July, and the C16 has received more than 10,000 orders since its June 28 launch, the team noted.
C16自6月28日发布以来，国内零售销售额已经超过13,100辆，团队指出，自发布以来已经收到了超过10,000个订单。
Huawei-backed Aito's retail volume in July is estimated at 43,000 units, up about 865 percent year-on-year and flat from June.
华为支持的Aito在7月的零售销量预计为43,000辆，同比增长约865%，环比持平。
Domestic retail sales for the Aito brand totaled 27,000 units in the first three weeks of July, with new order flow estimated at around 25,000 units, according to the team.
Aito品牌的国内零售总销量在7月前三周已经达到了27,000辆，新订单流量预计约为25,000辆，据该团队称。
It's worth noting that Aito's order backlog at the end of June was about 75,000 units, with about 20,000 of the M7 Ultra, 40,000 of the M9, and 15,000 of the M5, which will support 43,000 monthly deliveries in July, the team said.
值得注意的是，Aito在6月底的订单积压量约为75,000辆，其中M7 Ultra约20,000辆，M9约40,000辆，M5约15,000辆，这将支持7月43,000辆的月交付量，团队称。
($1 = RMB 7.2756)
（1美元 = 7.2756人民币）
China EV insurance registrations for week ending Jul 21: Nio 4,600, Tesla 10,500, Xiaomi 1,500, BYD 66,700
中国电动汽车保险业7月21日一周登记：蔚来4,600，特斯拉10,500，小米1,500，比亚迪66,700。