Mainland real estate stocks continued their recent decline. As of the time of publication, China Vanke (02202) dropped 4.5%, closing at HKD 4.24; Seazen (01030) fell 2.08%, closing at HKD 1.41; R&F Properties (02777) fell 1.26%, closing at HKD 0.78.
According to the Wisdom Financial App, mainland real estate stocks continued their recent decline. As of the time of publication, China Vanke (02202) dropped 4.5%, closing at HKD 4.24; Seazen (01030) fell 2.08%, closing at HKD 1.41; R&F Properties (02777) fell 1.26%, closing at HKD 0.78.
Debon Securities pointed out that real estate sales are still in a downward trend. In H1 2024, national commodity housing sales area decreased by 19% YoY, and sales fell by 25% YoY. There is still room for further policy optimization. Shenwan Hongyuan pointed out that after a deep adjustment of the fundamentals of the real estate industry, bottom signals such as the mortgage burden ratio, rental return on investment, and the number of new starts per thousand people have emerged. It is expected that the natural demand for the real estate industry will bottom out. Since the end of April this year, policies such as 430, 517, 607 have been introduced intensively, and the policy direction has shifted from the supply side to the demand side, focusing on inventory reduction and stable housing prices.
CICC pointed out that the real estate industry is still seeking a new balance. The downward pressure increased in the first few months of this year, and the policy ceiling also opened accordingly. Although the trend reversal will still take some time, the stage of rapid decline in the industry volume is passing. The downward trend will gradually converge starting from Q2, and the further decline in housing prices will also relatively converge. The probability of a soft landing in the fundamentals has significantly increased, which drives the valuation repair of real estate stocks. The market's implied expectations in April this year were too pessimistic. Regarding the bottom range of real estate stocks, the future direction does not need to be pessimistic, but only the rhythm needs to be observed for the progress of fundamental reality improvement.