According to the investigation results of UBS Asset Management, 66% of the surveyed global central banks believed that the global economy is most likely to experience a soft landing, while only 16% estimated that the global economy would fall into recession.
According to the investigation results of UBS Asset Management, 66% of the surveyed global central banks believed that the global economy is most likely to experience a soft landing, while only 16% estimated that the global economy would fall into recession. 68% of the respondents believed that the world has entered a period of high inflation, and that high inflation will persist for a long time. 87% considered the rising geopolitical conflict as the main risk, which is higher than the survey in the previous two years.
Among the surveyed central banks, the average proportion of holdings in US dollars was 55%, which is the same as last year's 56%. In the past year, more central banks have net increased their holdings of euros and yen, and the currency with net decrease in holdings during the same period was the British pound. More surveyed central banks also plan to further increase their holdings of euros and renminbi. 70% are currently investing or considering investing in Renminbi, which is a 2% decrease from last year and lower than in 2022 and 2021.
In the next five years, 43% believe that the central bank's currency diversification will still be centered on the US dollar, while 26% believe that the configuration will show a multipolar pattern of the US dollar, euro and renminbi. The respondents' average expectation for the proportion of Renminbi's allocation in ten years is 5%, which is lower than last year's 5.2%.