GDP Q2 Preview: 5 ETFs To Monitor Thursday As Economic Data Unfolds
GDP Q2 Preview: 5 ETFs To Monitor Thursday As Economic Data Unfolds
Investors are eagerly awaiting this Thursday's release of advance estimates for the second quarter's gross domestic product (GDP) by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at 8:30 a.m. ET.
投资者们正在热切期待于周四早上8:30发布的第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）的初步估计报告。
In the first quarter of 2024, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.4%, a significant slowdown compared to the 3.4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. This deceleration was accompanied by a temporary spike in inflation, with the GDP price index jumping to 3.1% in the first quarter, raising fears of stagflation.
在2024年第一季度，美国经济以年化1.4%的速度增长，相比于2023年第四季度的3.4%增长显著减缓。这种减速伴随着通货膨胀的暂时飙升，一季度GDP价格指数升至3.1%，引发了滞胀的担忧。
Besides the second quarter GDP data, investors will closely monitor the weekly jobless claims, expected to ease from 243,000 to 238,000, and June's durable goods orders, projected to rise by 0.2% month-over-month.
除了第二季度的GDP数据，投资者们还将密切关注预计从24.3万人减至23.8万人的每周失业救济金申领情况，以及预计环比增长0.2%的6月耐用品订单。
Investors currently assign 100% odds to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具显示，投资者们目前已将于9月的联邦利率削减赋予了100%的概率。
Economist Forecasts for Q2 2024 GDP
2024年第二季度GDP经济学家预测
- Q2 GDP growth: The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2% quarter-over-quarter annualized in the second quarter, up from 1.4% in the first quarter.
- GDP price index: Forecasted to decrease from 3.1% in the first quarter to 2.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a cooling of inflationary pressures.
- Core GDP price index: Expected to drop from 3.7% in the first quarter to 2.7% in the second quarter, excluding volatile energy and food prices.
- Q2 GDP增长：第二季度美国经济预计以环比年化2%增长，高于第一季度1.4%。
- GDP价格指数：预计第二季度将从第一季度的3.1%下降至2.6%，反映通货膨胀压力的缓解。
- 核心GDP价格指数：预计第二季度将从第一季度的3.7%下降至2.7%，不包括能源和食品价格的波动。
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Tracker Points To 2.7% Growth
亚特兰大联邦储备银行GDPNow追踪器指向2.7%的增长
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has raised its second-quarter real GDP growth forecast to 2.7%, according to its latest update, continuing an upward trend from a low of 1.55% on July 3.
根据亚特兰大联邦储备银行的GDPNow模型最新更新，第二季度实际GDP增长预测已经上升至2.7%，这是从7月3日的1.55%低点开始的一个上升趋势。
Consumer spending is expected to add 1.5 percentage points (pp) to GDP growth in the second quarter, up from 1.0pp in the first quarter.
消费支出预计在第二季度为GDP增长增加1.5个百分点，高于第一季度的1个百分点。
Non-residential fixed investments are forecasted to contribute 0.75pp. Private inventories are projected to add 0.95pp, while government spending adds 0.42pp.
非住宅固定投资预计将贡献0.75个百分点。私人库存预计将增加0.95个百分点，而政府支出则增加0.42个百分点。
5 ETFs To Monitor Thursday
5个值得关注的ETF
The advance estimates on the first-quarter GDP, released on April 25, 2024, impacted growth-sensitive stocks and safe-haven assets. Key movements included:
4月25日发布的第一季度GDP初步估计影响了增长敏感型股票和避险资产的走势。关键变化包括：
- The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA) fell 0.9%.
- The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) dropped 0.6%.
- The Financials SPDR Select Sector Fund (NYSE:XLF) decreased 0.6%.
- The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) rose 0.5%.
- The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) increased 0.7%.
- SPDR道琼斯工业平均ETF（NYSE:DIA）下跌0.9%。
- iShares罗素2000指数ETF（NYSE:IWM）下跌0.6%。
- 金融SPDR选择性部门基金（NYSE:XLF）下跌0.6%。
- 纳斯达克的iShares 20+年期国库券ETF（NASDAQ:TLT）上涨0.5%。
- SPDR金etf（NYSE:GLD）上涨0.7%。
Based on previous market reactions, a lower-than-expected GDP reading could lead to a weakening in growth-linked stocks and sectors, with investors gravitating towards safer assets like Treasuries and gold.
根据以往市场反应，如果GDP数据低于预期，则可能导致成长型股票和板块的疲弱，投资者会转向国债和黄金等安全资产。
Conversely, stronger-than-expected GDP figures might boost the U.S. dollar, especially if also the price index surpasses expectations.
相反，超过预期的GDP数据可能会推动美元走强，特别是如果价格指数也超过预期。
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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock