According to a research report from Haitong Securities, Pop Mart (09992) released a profit forecast for the first half of 24 years, with expected YoY revenue growth of no less than 55%, and net income (excluding fair value changes) growth of no less than 90%.
The bank believes that in terms of offline channels, it is expected that mainland China's offline channels will maintain rapid growth, and the number of stores in Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and overseas offline channels will increase, with high-speed revenue growth. From 24 to 26 years, revenue growth rates will be 64.68%, 37.93% and 29.42% respectively. In terms of online channels, it is expected that mainland China's online channels will maintain stable growth, and Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and overseas online channels will have high-speed growth. From 24 to 26 years, revenue growth rates will be 11.77%, 13.75% and 14.73% respectively. In terms of wholesale and other channels, it is expected that the revenue of mainland China's amusement park business will grow rapidly, and the revenue in Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and overseas regions will grow relatively fast. From 24 to 26 years, revenue growth rates will be 41.19%, 26.88% and 18.53% respectively. In terms of gross margin, it is expected that with the optimization of product costs and the increase in overseas proportion, the gross margin will continue to improve, and the gross margin from 24 to 26 years will be 63.42%, 64.24% and 64.94% respectively. In terms of expense ratio, it is expected that the sales expense ratio will remain at 30% and the management expense ratio will remain at 10% from 24 to 26 years.
The bank expects the company's net income for 24-25 years to be 1.824 and 2.429 billion yuan respectively, with YoY growth rates of 68.5% and 33.2%. Based on comparable company valuations, the bank gives the company a PE valuation of 30-32 times for 24 years, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 40.80-43.52 yuan (44.84-47.82 Hong Kong dollars, converted at a rate of 1 Hong Kong dollar to 0.91 yuan), and gives it an "outperforming the market" rating.