管理部门应加强对先进产能建设的引导，地方政府应严控不合理的救市行为，企业应审慎上马新投资，鼓励有针对性地收购跨界企业退出行业所遗留的新建产能，金融机构则应避免向即将被出清的产能“输血”。Through policy constraints and market competition, the photovoltaic laggard capacity will gradually enter the substantial clearance stage, and the progress is expected to be: battery components > silicon materials > silicon wafers.
In the first half of 2024, the domestic photovoltaic newly added installed capacity was 102.48 GW, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%. Overall, the newly added installed capacity maintained growth but the growth rate slowed down. In particular, for the first time in four years, the monthly increase in newly installed capacity has decreased year-on-year, which first appeared in March, a decrease of 4.27 GW compared with the same period last year; the second decline occurred in April, a decrease of 0.28 GW compared with the same period last year.
At the photovoltaic industry seminar on the review of the development of the first half of 2024 and the outlook for the second half of the year held on July 25th, Wang Bohua, Honorary Chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, stated that the industry needs to "travel light", the integration time should not be too long, and the industry adjustment should be heavy and fast.
The management department should strengthen the guidance of advanced production capacity construction, local governments should strictly control unreasonable rescue market behaviors, enterprises should be cautious in launching new investments, encourage targeted acquisition of new production capacity left by cross-border companies exiting the industry, and financial institutions should avoid providing funding to the capacity that will soon be cleared.
According to a research report by Citic Securities, with the photovoltaic industry chain capacity basically peaked and prices have already bottomed out, the pressure of significantly shrinking operating performance and depreciating backward assets has caused main-chain enterprises to begin entering the cash consumption stage, and it is expected that some second- and third-tier manufacturers can only support their on-hand funds for 6-12 months.
Through policy constraints and market competition, the photovoltaic backward production capacity will gradually enter the substantive clearance stage. The progress is expected to be in the order of battery components > silicon material > silicon wafer.
With the continuous growth of installation demand and the acceleration of technological upgrades, the photovoltaic supply side may gradually be restructured before the second half of 2025, and the prices and profits of the industry chain are expected to stabilize. High-quality leading enterprises with advantages in products, costs, funds, and internationalization are expected to lead the industry reversal.
Photovoltaic related industry chain enterprises:
Xinte Energy (01799), GCL Tech (03800), Flat Glass (06865), Xinyi Glass (00868)
