According to Futu Securities news, Dongshu Cui, Secretary General of CAAM, wrote that China's import of automobiles has continued to decline by an average of 8% per year since 2017, dropping from 1.24 million units to only 0.8 million units by 2023. Automobile imports fell for the third year in a row in January-June, with a year-on-year decline of 4%. With the rise of domestic brands and the acceleration of international brand localization, automobile imports have been continuously low in recent years. In June, automobile imports were 0.061 million units, down 2% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month, which is a rarely seen low increase in June. As China's automobile industry continues to strengthen and the transformation to electrification changes the market demand structure, the demand for fuel vehicles continues to decline, and the demand for imported fuel vehicles has also shown a significant decline. With the constant complexity of international relations, it is still necessary to establish more import models to maintain a reasonable scale of imported cars.

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1. General Trend of China's Car Imports

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By 2023, the import scale would fall sharply with only 800,000 imports that year, a 10% drop compared to the previous year. The monthly import volume in 2024 remains at around 50,000 units, with significant pressure from continuous shrinkage. From January to May 2024, car imports were 63,000, a year-on-year increase of 7%, an increase of 22% from April, and a rare May growth.

In 2024, automobile imports were 0.061 million units in June, down 2% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month, which is a rarely seen low increase in June; automobile imports in January-June were 0.332 million units, down 4% year-on-year. With the rise of domestic brands and the acceleration of international brand localization, automobile imports have been continuously low in recent years, with a three-year negative growth from January to June.

The imported car market stabilized in 2021, with a total of 0.93 million imported cars, which was the same as last year. In 2022, the import of automobiles reached 0.88 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, which was a relatively large decline compared to the imported volume in 2020. In 2023, the import of automobiles will be 0.799 million units, a decrease of 10% year-on-year.

Recently, the international automobile production has rebounded, and the potential to promote year-on-year consumer growth through increased import of cars still exists.

2. Monthly Trend of Whole Vehicle Imports

The import of passenger cars has returned to a normal trend after the pandemic. Looking at the monthly trend, imports have shown a trend of recovery and growth in recent years, which is basically the same as the trend of domestic cars.

In 2024, the trend will be normal during the season, with imported cars weaker than the same period in 2023 from January to April, import trends warming up in May, and a resumption of weak growth in June. It is still uncertain whether the trend will continue upward in the second half of 2024, as it did after June 2023.

3. Characteristics of Importing Whole Vehicles

The imported car market was relatively stable from 2017 to 2019. In 2023, the import of complete vehicles will be 0.8 million units, which is a relatively large decrease compared to 2022. In 2024, passenger car imports will still be the best, and traditional truck imports will be generally weaker.

This year, passenger vehicles account for 98% of the structure of imported cars and are the absolute main force. Among them, from January to June of 2024, the imported sedan accounted for 44% with 0.144 million units, the imported four-wheel-drive SUV accounted for 33% with 0.107 million units, and unnamed new energy vehicles accounted for 4% with 0.0123 million units.

In 2024, the import of commercial vehicles has performed well, especially with a significant rebound in truck imports in March, but weak performances in tractor and medium truck imports from May to June.

4. Characteristics of Importing New Energy Vehicles

In recent years, imported new energy passenger vehicles have achieved sustained high growth. In June, the import of pure electric passenger vehicles decreased by 68% to 1205 units, and the import of plug-in hybrid vehicles decreased by 56% to 841 units. The proportion of imported new energy vehicles reached 4.3%; the import of pure electric passenger vehicles in January-June had a weak performance.

The market for traditional fuel-powered imported cars has declined significantly. The ratio of diesel trucks has increased, while the ratio of gasoline trucks has decreased, which is related to the demand for traction vehicles. The performance of upscale gasoline pickup truck imports in 2024 was slow.

Recently, the performance of the new energy passenger vehicle market has been relatively strong, and the imported pure electric vehicle market has also performed relatively well.

This year, the import of new energy passenger vehicles accounts for 5.9%, and pure electric vehicles have a small increase compared to last year. Passenger vehicles are still the absolute main force. The proportion of gasoline-fueled vehicles in trucks is still relatively high, but diesel-fueled vehicles have improved significantly.

5. Characteristics of imported car engine displacement structure The imported passenger car models are concentrated in gasoline models with a displacement of less than 2 liters, accounting for 48% of the entire import volume of passenger cars. The sales volume of large-displacement imported cars in 2.5L-3L, which had strong early import trends, has dropped, while the proportion of 2L-2.5L has rebounded significantly, and the high-end trend of the market is not strong. Large-displacement cars above 4 liters showed a temporary increase in May, with obvious hedging factors.

The imported models of passenger vehicles are mainly gasoline vehicles with a displacement of less than 2 liters, accounting for 52% of the total imported volume of passenger vehicles. Sales of high-displacement imported cars with a displacement of 2.5-3L, which had previously had strong import trends, have declined, while those with a displacement of 2-2.5L have clearly rebounded, and the market's trend towards high-end models is not strong. In June, cars with a displacement of over 4 liters temporarily rose due to risk aversion.

II. Automobile Import Market Structure 1. Characteristics of Imported Cars by Country Imported cars are mainly owned by enterprises in Beijing, which has a strong advantage in headquarters economics. The decrease in the scale of imported cars in Jilin Province indicates that there are more imported new energy vehicles.

1. Characteristics of Importing Countries

Japan, Germany, and the United States are still the core countries for the importation of Chinese passenger cars, with Hungary showing a relatively strong performance recently, while the import volume from Slovakia has slightly decreased.

2. Characteristics of import regions

Imported cars are mainly owned by enterprises in Beijing, which has a strong advantage in headquarters economics. The decrease in the scale of imported cars in Jilin Province indicates that there are more imported new energy vehicles.

3. Monthly trend of imported vehicles

In June 2024, Germany imported the most cars at 19,428 units, followed by Japan at 17,648 units, the United States at 10,612 units, Slovakia at 3,566 units, and the UK at 3,109 units. Hungary saw the largest increase in imports in June, with 1,838 units, followed by Germany with 1,060 units, Belgium with 93 units, the United States with 77 units, and India with 70 units. The highest imported cars from January to June 2024 were from Japan, with 99,782 units, followed by Germany with 87,283 units, the United States with 56,725 units, Slovakia with 27,384 units, and the UK with 24,159 units; the largest increase from January to June was from Japan with 25,351 units, followed by Hungary with 2,062 units, the Netherlands with 1,572 units, and the United States with 352 units.

4. Characteristics of imported new energy vehicles

Before 2019, the import volume of new energy vehicles was relatively large, but the significant decline in pure electric vehicles caused by the domestic production of Tesla in 2021.

The development of new energy in 2022-2023 is very good, allowing more companies to import new energy.

In 2024, the import of pure electric vehicles from Germany slowed down, the import of plug-in hybrids from the United States showed strong performance, and the overall trend of hybrid vehicles from Japanese companies was strong.

III. Automobile Market Sales Structure At present, the sales performance of imported cars is slightly worse than that of domestic luxury cars. In 2021, the sales of imported cars reached 940,000 units, a 6% decrease from the previous year.

At present, the sales performance of imported cars is slightly worse, weaker than the trend of domestic luxury car market. In 2021, the sales volume of imported cars reached 940,000 units, a 6% decline compared to 2020. In 2022, the sales volume of imported cars was 840,000 units, a significant decrease of 10% compared to 2021, and it was also relatively weaker than the performance of domestic cars. Finally, in 2023, sales resumed normal growth and reached 910,000 units, an 8% increase.

Currently, the performance of imported car sales is slightly worse than that of domestic luxury car markets. In 2021, imported car sales reached 0.94 million units, a 6% year-on-year decrease compared to 2020.

In 2022, the sales of imported cars were 840,000 units, a significant decrease of 10% compared with 2021, and relatively weaker than the performance of domestic cars. In 2023, it finally returned to positive growth, reaching 910,000 units, an increase of 8%.

The compulsory auto liability insurance data for imported cars from January to June 2024 was 0.4 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9%. With the promotion of the low base, imported car retailing in the first half of this year was average, and the future is still under pressure.

2. Characteristics of imported car brands

In recent years, the import of ultra-luxury cars has continued to increase, but since 2023, there has been a 12% decline, and from January to June 2024, there has been an accelerated decline. The overall weakness of the ultra-luxury segment reflects a temporary slowdown in the purchasing power of the ultra-high-end consumer group.

At present, the import car market is mainly supported by luxury car demand. The proportion of imported luxury cars in the import car market has increased significantly. Lexus' imported retail sales have surged by 20%, and its performance is good. BMW, Audi, and Land Rover have overall strong performances, while Porsche's recent performance is weak.

Imported cars from joint venture brands are rapidly shrinking, and some brands of imported cars from Toyota, Volkswagen, and Subaru have shrunk sharply.

3. Characteristics of regional changes in imported car brands

The overall demand for imported cars is weak, and there is greater market pressure for imported luxury cars in traditional affluent areas like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Hangzhou.

4. Regional changes in the luxury car market

The overall demand for luxury cars is weak, and there is greater market pressure for luxury cars in traditional affluent areas like Shanghai and Shenzhen.