Haitong Securities has released a research report stating that Nongfu Spring (09633) sales net profit margin increased from 19.31% in 2017 to 28.15% in 2023, indicating a sustained improvement in profitability. Referencing Wind, the average price of 24H1pet in the first half of 2024 decreased by 2.8% compared to the same period in 2023, while the average price of 24H1 corrugated paper decreased by 6.5% compared to the first half of 2023. Additionally, the company currently has 12 major water source bases and started construction of the Huangshan base in 2023 (as a comparison, the company had only 10 water supply areas at the time of its IPO, according to the prospectus). The continuous expansion of water sources will also be conducive to the sustainable optimization of the company's overall transportation costs. Therefore, based on these factors, the bank is bullish on the company's continued good profitability.
The bank predicts that the company's total operating revenue for 2024-2026 will be 48.065/58.586/65.901 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company forecasted to be 13.069/15.608/18.704 billion yuan, and corresponding EPS of 1.16/1.39/1.66 yuan/share. The bank believes that, based on comparable company PE valuations, and considering that the company itself is still at a good stage of growth as a leader, the bank continues to give the company a PE valuation range of 30-35 times (2024E), with a corresponding value range per share of 34.80-40.60 yuan/share. Calculated at the exchange rate of 0.90 Hong Kong dollars to RMB, this corresponds to a reasonable value range of 38.67-45.11 Hong Kong dollars per share, and the bank maintains its "Outperform" rating.