Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 7.4% to hit US$8.1b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$2.68, some 9.2% above whatthe analysts had expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

After the latest results, the consensus from Nucor's eleven analysts is for revenues of US$30.8b in 2024, which would reflect a measurable 5.7% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 29% to US$10.04 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$30.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.67 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$186, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Nucor analyst has a price target of US$240 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$170. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 11% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.2% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Nucor's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Nucor. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nucor going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see whether Nucor is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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