O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ORLY) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 26.8x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 17x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
O'Reilly Automotive certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. The P/E is probably high because investors think the company will continue to navigate the broader market headwinds better than most. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
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How Is O'Reilly Automotive's Growth Trending?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as O'Reilly Automotive's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 10%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 45% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 11% per annum over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 10% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a comparable earnings result.
With this information, we find it interesting that O'Reilly Automotive is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Bottom Line On O'Reilly Automotive's P/E
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
We've established that O'Reilly Automotive currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is only in line with the wider market. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for O'Reilly Automotive (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) you should be aware of.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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